[Synchronies and asynchronies in the development of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy].

IF 1.2 4区医学 Q4 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Epidemiologia & Prevenzione Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI:10.19191/EP24.3.A676.054

Maria Teresa Giraudo, Manuele Falcone, Cesare Cislaghi, Francesca Cordero, Simone Pernice, Roberta Sirovich

{"title":"[Synchronies and asynchronies in the development of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy].","authors":"Maria Teresa Giraudo, Manuele Falcone, Cesare Cislaghi, Francesca Cordero, Simone Pernice, Roberta Sirovich","doi":"10.19191/EP24.3.A676.054","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background: the study of the possible determinants of the rise and fall of infections can be of great relevance, as was experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions.Objectives: to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves.Design: within the considered period, trends in regional RDt are analyzed in detail over four different time intervals.Setting and participants: to exemplify this methodology, the study of variability in the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may be of interest.Main outcomes measures: the variability in the regional RDt indices is assessed by means of the correlation coefficient weighted with respect to the populations of the individual regions. The clustering procedure is applied to the time series of absolute RDt values.Results: it emerges that the periods of increasing variability in the RDt correspond to the initial growth or decrease in the number of infections, while functional clustering identifies macro-areas in which the epidemic curves have had similar trends. What caused contagions to increase seems to relate to a factor that is not specific to certain areas, with the contribution in some cases of a contagion dynamic between adjacent areas.Conclusions: the variability in the trend of regional diagnostic replication indices, which are calculated with only a few days delay, is a further indicator for the early detection of major changes in the trend of epidemic curves. The clustering of epidemic index curves may be useful to determine whether determinants act simultaneously or by contiguity between adjacent areas.","PeriodicalId":50511,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiologia & Prevenzione","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiologia & Prevenzione","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.19191/EP24.3.A676.054","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: the study of the possible determinants of the rise and fall of infections can be of great relevance, as was experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the methods to understand whether determinants are simultaneous or develop through contiguity between different areas is the study of the diagnostic replication index RDt among regions.

Objectives: to introduce the analysis of RDt variability and the subsequent application of a recently introduced functional clustering method as highly useful procedures for recognizing the presence of clusters with similar trends in epidemic curves.

Design: within the considered period, trends in regional RDt are analyzed in detail over four different time intervals.

Setting and participants: to exemplify this methodology, the study of variability in the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022 may be of interest.

Main outcomes measures: the variability in the regional RDt indices is assessed by means of the correlation coefficient weighted with respect to the populations of the individual regions. The clustering procedure is applied to the time series of absolute RDt values.

Results: it emerges that the periods of increasing variability in the RDt correspond to the initial growth or decrease in the number of infections, while functional clustering identifies macro-areas in which the epidemic curves have had similar trends. What caused contagions to increase seems to relate to a factor that is not specific to certain areas, with the contribution in some cases of a contagion dynamic between adjacent areas.

Conclusions: the variability in the trend of regional diagnostic replication indices, which are calculated with only a few days delay, is a further indicator for the early detection of major changes in the trend of epidemic curves. The clustering of epidemic index curves may be useful to determine whether determinants act simultaneously or by contiguity between adjacent areas.

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

[意大利 COVID-19 大流行病发展过程中的同步与非同步]。

背景：正如 COVID-19 大流行期间所经历的那样，研究感染率上升和下降的可能决定因素具有重要意义。目标：介绍 RDt 变异性分析以及随后应用最近推出的功能聚类方法，这些都是非常有用的程序，可用于识别疫情曲线趋势相似的集群的存在。设计：在考虑的时间段内，详细分析了四个不同时间间隔内的地区 RDt 趋势。环境和参与者：为示范该方法，可能会对 2021 年底至 2022 年初期间的变异性研究感兴趣。主要结果衡量指标：地区 RDt 指数的变异性通过与各地区人口相关的加权相关系数进行评估。结果：结果表明，RDt 变异性增加的时期与感染数量的最初增长或减少相对应，而功能聚类则确定了疫情曲线具有相似趋势的宏观区域。结论：区域诊断复制指数的趋势变化（只需延迟几天计算）是及早发现流行病曲线趋势重大变化的又一指标。流行病指数曲线的聚类可能有助于确定决定因素是同时起作用还是通过相邻地区之间的连续性起作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

Epidemiologia & Prevenzione 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

14.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Epidemiologia & Prevenzione, oggi organo della Associazione italiana di epidemiologia, raccoglie buona parte delle migliori e originali esperienze italiane di ricerca epidemiologica e di studio degli interventi per la prevenzione e la sanità pubblica. La rivista – indicizzata su Medline e dotata di Impact Factor – è un canale importante anche per la segnalazione al pubblico internazionale di contributi che altrimenti circolerebbero soltanto in Italia. E&P in questi decenni ha svolto una funzione di riferimento per la sanità pubblica ma anche per i cittadini e le loro diverse forme di aggregazione. Il principio che l’ha ispirata era, e rimane, che l’epidemiologia ha senso se è funzionale alla prevenzione e alla sanità pubblica e che la prevenzione ha ben poche possibilità di realizzarsi se non si fonda su valide basi scientifiche e se non c’è la partecipazione di tutti i soggetti interessati. Modalità di comunicazione aggiornate, metodologia statistica ed epidemiologica rigorosa, validità degli studi e solidità delle interpretazioni dei risultati sono la solida matrice su cui E&P è costruita. A questa si accompagna una forte responsabilità etica verso la salute pubblica, che oggi ha ampliato in forma irreversibile il suo orizzonte, e include in forma sempre più consapevole non solo gli esseri umani, ma l’intero pianeta e le modificazioni che l’uomo apporta all’universo in cui vive. L’ambizione è che l’offerta di nuovi strumenti di comunicazione, informazione e formazione, soprattutto attraverso l''uso di internet, renda la rivista non solo un tradizionale veicolo di contenuti e analisi scientifiche, ma anche un potente strumento a disposizione di una comunità di interessi e di valori che ha a cuore la salute pubblica.