Assessing Changes in Land Cover, NDVI, and LST in the Sundarbans Mangrove Forest in Bangladesh and India: A GIS and Remote Sensing Approach

Abstract

Mangrove ecosystems, although limited in diversity and area compared to tropical forests, provide essential ecological and economic services, such as carbon sequestration and coastal protection. The Sundarbans mangrove forest, shared by Bangladesh and India, is one of the largest mangrove ecosystems in the world and is crucial for biodiversity, economy, and climate regulation. Unfortunately, this ecosystem has been under severe stress over the years, with alarming rates of deforestation leading to habitat loss and a decline in ecosystem services. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in the Sundarbans mangrove forest coverage from 1973 to 2023 using supervised image classification on Landsat images. It also assesses the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature in the Sundarbans using MODIS data which were extracted in Google Earth Engine. It finds that, despite the loss of denser mangrove areas, an improvement in overall vegetation health is visible, which suggests a natural resilience within the Sundarbans mangrove forest. The Land Surface Temperature result shows a weak but statistically significant negative correlation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, indicating that the depletion of the Sundarbans mangrove forest could have an impact on the area’s surface temperature. As such, the study regressed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index on Land Surface Temperature. The results confirm that although the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index has a statistically significant negative impact on Land Surface Temperature, the Coefficient of Determination is low. This suggests that other factors such as water bodies that intersect with the mangrove forest in the area may play an important role in influencing Land Surface Temperature. The paper reveals a nuanced picture of the Sundarbans’ ecological state, with both declining mangrove densities and signs of vegetation recovery. It highlights the need for comprehensive conservation strategies to mitigate further ecosystem degradation.