Comparing the Mixed Logit Estimates and True Parameters under Informative and Uninformative Heterogeneity: A Simulated Discrete Choice Experiment

IF 1.9 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Computational Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI:10.1007/s10614-024-10637-x
Maksat Jumamyradov, Benjamin M. Craig, William H. Greene, Murat Munkin
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Abstract

In discrete choice experiments (DCEs), differences between respondents’ preferences may be associated with observable or unobservable factors. Unobservable heterogeneity, related to latent factors associated with the choices of individuals, may be modelled using correlated (i.e. informative heterogeneity) or uncorrelated (i.e. uninformative heterogeneity) individual-specific parameters of a logit model. In this study, we simulated unobservable heterogeneity among DCE respondents and compared the results of the maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimation of the mixed logit model when correctly specified and mis-specified. These results show that the MSL estimates are biased and can differ greatly from the true parameters, even when correctly specified. Before estimating a mixed logit model, we highly recommend that choice modellers conduct simulation analyses to assess the potential extent of biases before relying on the MSL estimates, particularly their variances and correlations, and then ultimately determine which model specification produces the least bias.

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比较有信息和无信息异质性下的混合 Logit 估计值和真实参数:模拟离散选择实验
在离散选择实验(DCE)中,受访者偏好的差异可能与可观察或不可观察的因素有关。不可观察的异质性与个人选择相关的潜在因素有关,可以使用 logit 模型中相关(即有信息的异质性)或无相关(即无信息的异质性)的个人特定参数来模拟。在本研究中,我们模拟了 DCE 受访者中不可观测的异质性,并比较了混合 logit 模型的最大模拟似然法(MSL)估计结果,即正确指定和错误指定的结果。这些结果表明,MSL 估计值是有偏差的,即使在正确指定的情况下,也可能与真实参数相差很大。在估计混合对数模型之前,我们强烈建议选择建模者在依赖 MSL 估计值(尤其是其方差和相关性)之前进行模拟分析,以评估偏差的潜在程度,然后最终确定哪种模型规格产生的偏差最小。
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来源期刊
Computational Economics
Computational Economics MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
15.00%
发文量
119
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: Computational Economics, the official journal of the Society for Computational Economics, presents new research in a rapidly growing multidisciplinary field that uses advanced computing capabilities to understand and solve complex problems from all branches in economics. The topics of Computational Economics include computational methods in econometrics like filtering, bayesian and non-parametric approaches, markov processes and monte carlo simulation; agent based methods, machine learning, evolutionary algorithms, (neural) network modeling; computational aspects of dynamic systems, optimization, optimal control, games, equilibrium modeling; hardware and software developments, modeling languages, interfaces, symbolic processing, distributed and parallel processing
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