{"title":"Weather explains inter‐annual variability, but not the temporal decline, in insect biomass","authors":"François Duchenne, Colin Fontaine","doi":"10.1111/icad.12769","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<jats:list> <jats:list-item>Müller et al. re‐analysed published data on temporal variation in insect biomass in Germany between 1989 and 2016, with a focus on modelling the effects of weather conditions on insect biomass.</jats:list-item> <jats:list-item>These upgraded analyses, using an external validation dataset, are a nice demonstration of the strong impact of climatic conditions on annual insect biomass. However, Müller et al.'s conclusion that temporal variation in weather conditions explained most of the temporal changes in insect biomass was overstated. We argue that their methodological approach was unsuitable to draw such conclusion, because of omitted variable bias.</jats:list-item> <jats:list-item>We re‐ran the analyses of Müller et al. but accounting for a remaining temporal trend in insect biomass due to missing drivers. Our results suggest that the main conclusion of Müller et al. was wrong: there is a significant temporal decline in insect biomass that is not explained by weather conditions.</jats:list-item> <jats:list-item>Our commentary recalls that not accounting for missing predictors is likely to produce highly biased results, especially when missing predictors are correlated with the available ones, which is likely to be the case for most of the anthropogenic pressures linked to global change. This highlights the difficult challenge of estimating the relative importance of the global change components in driving the observed biodiversity changes.</jats:list-item> </jats:list>","PeriodicalId":13640,"journal":{"name":"Insect Conservation and Diversity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Insect Conservation and Diversity","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/icad.12769","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENTOMOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Müller et al. re‐analysed published data on temporal variation in insect biomass in Germany between 1989 and 2016, with a focus on modelling the effects of weather conditions on insect biomass.These upgraded analyses, using an external validation dataset, are a nice demonstration of the strong impact of climatic conditions on annual insect biomass. However, Müller et al.'s conclusion that temporal variation in weather conditions explained most of the temporal changes in insect biomass was overstated. We argue that their methodological approach was unsuitable to draw such conclusion, because of omitted variable bias.We re‐ran the analyses of Müller et al. but accounting for a remaining temporal trend in insect biomass due to missing drivers. Our results suggest that the main conclusion of Müller et al. was wrong: there is a significant temporal decline in insect biomass that is not explained by weather conditions.Our commentary recalls that not accounting for missing predictors is likely to produce highly biased results, especially when missing predictors are correlated with the available ones, which is likely to be the case for most of the anthropogenic pressures linked to global change. This highlights the difficult challenge of estimating the relative importance of the global change components in driving the observed biodiversity changes.
期刊介绍:
To publish papers of the highest scientific quality within the general area of insect (and other arthropods) conservation and diversity covering topics ranging from ecological theory to practical management.
Papers are invited on the following topics: Conservation genetics; Extinction debt; Long-term conservation planning and implementation; Global implications of local or national conservation actions; Management responses of species and communities; Captive breeding programs; Comparisons of restored and natural habitats; Biogeography; Global biodiversity; Metapopulation dynamics; Climate change: impacts on distributions and range; Invasive species: impacts and control; Effects of pollution; Genetic threats to diversity by introgression; Effects of fragmentation on diversity and distribution; Impact of agricultural and forestry practices on biodiversity; Enhancing urban environments for diversity and protection; Biodiversity action plans: can we scale up from insects?; Effectiveness and choice of indicator species; Soil biodiversity and interactions with above-ground biodiversity; Ecological interactions at local levels; Ecological and evolutionary factors influencing diversity and local, regional and global scales; Sustainable livelihoods and training on the ground; Integrating science and policy.