The Impact of Climate Change on Life Expectancy in the UK: Empirical Evidence from Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Procedure

Abstract

This study aims to determine the impact of surface temperature change, considered a proxy for climate change in the United Kingdom, on life expectancy using annual data from 1990–2021. Government expenditure is used as a control variable. The Fourier function-based bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag model is utilized to examine the cointegration among variables. The analysis outcomes reveal a long-term relationship between life expectancy, surface temperature change, and government expenditure. Furthermore, the findings reveal that surface temperature change significantly reduces life expectancy in the long run, while there is no significant relationship between the two variables in the short term. The Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis results show a unidirectional causality relationship between surface temperature change and life expectancy. Additionally, a significant bidirectional causality relationship is found between life expectancy and government expenditure.