Expansion of vacant jobs in the Russian labor market: Dynamics, composition, triggers

Abstract

The paper explors the key development in the Russian labor market of the 2020s — emergence of a massive overhang of vacant jobs. It discusses theoretical aspects of the problem of labor “shortage”, examines probabale triggers for the vacancy spurt, and analyzes its dynamics and composition. The starting point of this spurt had a precise time reference — the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, as evidenced by a sharp upward shift in the Beveridge curve in the second quarter of 2020. New exogeneous processes started in 2022 (such as mobilization and “relocation”) gave it even greater scale. The vacancy overhang is universal: there is no industry or occupation where it did not grow. These shifts marked the transition of the Russian labor market to a new operational regime.