Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila

H. Lauer, Carmeli M. C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, Jörn Birkmann
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Abstract

Abstract. Managed retreat, a key strategy in climate change adaptation for areas with high hazard exposure, raises concerns due to its disruptive nature, vulnerability issues and overall risk in the new location. On-site upgrading or near-site resettlement is seen as more appropriate and effective compared to a relocation far from the former place of living. However, these conclusions often refer to only a very limited set of empirical case studies or do not sufficiently consider different context conditions and phases in resettlement. Against this background, this paper examines the conditions and factors contributing to community resilience of different resettlement projects in Metro Manila. In this urban agglomeration reside an estimated 500 000 informal households, with more than 100 000 occupying high-risk areas. In light of the already realized and anticipated climate change effects, this precarious living situation exposes families, already socio-economically vulnerable, to an increased risk of flooding. The response of the Philippine government to the vexing problem of informal dwellers has been large-scale resettlement from coasts, rivers and creeks to state-owned sites at urban fringes. However, only very few resettlement projects could be realized as in-city projects close to the original living space. The study employs a sequential mixed-method approach, integrating a large-scale quantitative household survey and focus group discussions (FGDs) for a robust comparison of resettlement types. Further, it reveals community-defined enabling factors for managed retreat as climate change adaptation strategy. Results indicate minor variations in well-being conditions between in-city and off-city resettlement, challenging the expected impact of a more urban setting on resilience. Instead, essential prerequisites for resettlement involve reduced hazard exposure, secure tenure and safety from crime. Beyond these essential conditions, social cohesion and institutional support systems emerge as significant influencers for the successful establishment of well-functioning new settlements. With this findings, the study contributes to the expanding body of literature on managed retreat, offering a comprehensive evaluation based on extensive datasets and providing entry points for the improvement of retreat as a climate change adaptation strategy.
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通过有管理的撤退减少风险?调查有利条件并评估重新安置对大马尼拉市社区复原力的影响
摘要有管理的撤退是高风险地区适应气候变化的一项关键战略,但由于其破坏性、脆弱性问题和新地点的总体风险,这一战略引起了人们的关注。与远离原居住地的搬迁相比,就地改造或就近安置被认为更合适、更有效。然而,这些结论往往只参考了非常有限的一组经验性案例研究,或者没有充分考虑到重新安置的不同背景条件和阶段。在此背景下,本文研究了大马尼拉市不同重新安置项目中促进社区复原力的条件和因素。在这个城市群中,估计居住着 50 万户非正式家庭,其中 10 多万户居住在高风险地区。鉴于已经意识到的和预期的气候变化影响,这种岌岌可危的生活状况使本已在社会经济方面处于弱势的家庭面临更大的洪水风险。菲律宾政府对非正规居住者这一棘手问题的应对措施是,将沿海、河流和小溪的非正规居住者大规模重新安置到城市边缘的国有土地上。然而,只有极少数重新安置项目可以作为靠近原居住地的市内项目来实现。本研究采用了一种有序的混合方法,将大规模定量住户调查和焦点小组讨论(FGDs)结合起来,对安置类型进行了有力的比较。此外,研究还揭示了社区界定的将有管理的撤退作为气候变化适应战略的有利因素。研究结果表明,市内和市外重新安置在福利条件方面存在细微差别,这对预期的城市环境对恢复能力的影响提出了挑战。相反,重新安置的基本先决条件包括减少灾害风险、保障使用权和免受犯罪侵害。除了这些基本条件外,社会凝聚力和机构支持系统也是成功建立运作良好的新定居点的重要影响因素。通过这些研究结果,本研究为不断扩展的有关有管理撤退的文献做出了贡献,在广泛数据集的基础上提供了全面的评估,并为改进撤退作为气候变化适应战略提供了切入点。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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