Droughts and heatwaves in the West African monsoon system

Abstract

Heatwaves and droughts increasingly impact public health and societal system in a world subject to global warming. Several studies reported these phenomena all around the world, but there is a dearth of research specifically in West Africa. This study fills that gap by comparing heatwave/heat stress and drought occurrence in three climate zones (Guinea, Sudan and Sahel) of West Africa from 1981 to 2020. The analysis focuses on the comparison of station and gridded datasets. The Cumulative Excess Heat (CumHeat) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are considered for heatwaves. For drought, the Standardized Precipitation (Evapotranspiration) Index SPI (SPEI) are used at 3-, 6- and 12-month scales. Both heatwave and drought characteristics are investigated as well as their co-occurrence (D-HW). The investigation reveals a good correlation between station and gridded datasets for drought indices. While station data records fewer and less intense heatwave, gridded data indicates longer-lasting heat extremes. The study also demonstrates a strong agreement between the UTCI computed from the Rayman model and ERA5-HEAT dataset, despite timing discrepancies, especially along the Guinea coast. The Sahel region is found to endure higher heat stress levels, with increasing intensity of heatwaves over time. Notably, the study uncovers an increasing frequency of compound D-HW in all zones, especially the Sudan and Sahel zones, offering new insights into the climatic challenges faced by West Africa. These findings emphasize the critical need for improved planning and early warning systems (EWS) to mitigate the impacts of these climate extremes ecosystems and human health.