Longitudinal Cohort Study: Predictive Validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth Individual/Clinical Risk Factor on Recidivism Among Mississippi Justice-Involved Youth

Abstract

Many juvenile justice agencies have moved toward risk-need-responsivity and risk-need-assessment approaches to manage youth and reduce future risk of recidivism. The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) instrument is a popular tool to assess risk and protective factors among justice-involved youth. The present study explored the consistency of the Individual/Clinical Risk measure, comprised of eight items (e.g., anger, negative attitudes, empathy), as a single latent factor across five years (2017–2021) of juvenile court data in Mississippi. Further, this study examined gender (male vs. female) and race (Black vs. non-Black) invariance in this risk factor and the predictive validity of the risk factor for one-year recidivism. Findings support the existence of a single factor of Individual/Clinical Risk and consistency across time. The risk factor was invariant across gender and race. Further, the risk factor significantly predicted recidivism in years 2019–2021, and near significantly predicted recidivism for 2017. These findings recommend the continued use of the SAVRY as an evidence-based measure of risk.