Evolving Asian Production Networks, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Role of China

Abstract

In an era of rising trade protectionism and frequent antiglobalization events, strengthening regional economic connections has important practical significance for resisting external economic shocks, improving economic resilience, and promoting regional economic development. Based on input-output analysis, value-added decomposition, and network analysis, this paper uses long-term, multiregional input-output data to measure the spatiotemporal patterns of Asian production networks (APNs) and the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The results demonstrate that Asian countries account for a high and growing proportion, with a weak ability to capture value in global production networks (GPNs). The BRI has significantly strengthened production cooperation among Asian nations, promoting participation and strengthening abilities to capture value in GPNs. The continuous stability and strengthening of internal cooperation of APNs improves resilience from external shocks. Inside APNs, the proportions of East Asia and Southeast Asia show an overall downward trend, while South, West, and Central Asia show an increasing trend. China has also replaced Japan as the largest participant, and the rise of South Asian countries, led by India, has transformed APNs from a binary to a triple structure. In addition, China’s upstream degree index increased significantly, whereas Japan experienced the largest decline, causing a level of high-end vacancy in APNs. We propose that the most urgent task for the Asian countries to enhance APNs is to achieve stratified development and build more complete production circles.