Projecting the economic burden of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany from 2010 until 2040.

IF 3.2 2区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI:10.1186/s12963-024-00337-x

Dina Voeltz, Maximilian Vetterer, Esther Seidel-Jacobs, Ralph Brinks, Thaddäus Tönnies, Annika Hoyer

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Abstract

Background: The aim is to estimate age- and sex-specific direct medical costs related to diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040.

Methods: Based on nationwide representative epidemiological routine data from 2010 from the statutory health insurance in Germany (almost 80% of the population's insurance) we projected age- and sex-specific healthcare expenses for type 1 and 2 diabetes considering future demographic, disease-specific and cost trends. We combine per capita healthcare cost data (obtained from aggregated claims data from an almost 7% random sample of all German people with statutory health insurance) together with the demographic structure of the German population (obtained from the Federal Statictical Office), diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality. Direct per capita costs, total annual costs, cost ratios for people with versus without diabetes and attributable costs were estimated. The source code for running the analysis is publicly available in the open-access repository Zenodo.

Results: In 2010, total healthcare costs amounted to more than €1 billion for type 1 and €28 billion for type 2 diabetes. Depending on the scenario, total annual expenses were projected to rise remarkably until 2040 compared to 2010, by 1-281% for type 1 (€1 to €4 billion) and by 8-364% for type 2 diabetes (€30 to €131 billion). In a relatively probable scenario total costs amount to about €2 and €79 billion for type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2040, respectively. Depending on annual cost growth (1% p.a. as realistic scenario vs. 5% p.a. as very extreme setting), we estimated annual per capita costs of €6,581 to €12,057 for type 1 and €5,245 to €8,999 for type 2 diabetes in 2040.

Conclusions: Diabetes imposes a large economic burden on Germany which is projected to increase substantially until 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence and cost growth are main drivers of this increase. This highlight the need for urgent action to prepare for the potential development and mitigate its consequences.

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预测 2010 年至 2040 年德国 1 型和 2 型糖尿病的经济负担。

背景：目的是估算 2010 年至 2040 年德国与确诊的 1 型和 2 型糖尿病相关的年龄和性别直接医疗成本：目的是估算 2010 年至 2040 年期间德国与确诊的 1 型和 2 型糖尿病相关的特定年龄和性别的直接医疗费用：根据 2010 年德国法定医疗保险（几乎占人口保险的 80%）中具有全国代表性的流行病学常规数据，我们对 1 型和 2 型糖尿病的特定年龄和性别医疗费用进行了预测，其中考虑到了未来的人口、特定疾病和费用趋势。我们将人均医疗费用数据（从所有德国法定医疗保险参保者近 7% 的随机抽样中获得的汇总理赔数据）与德国人口结构（从联邦统计局获得）、糖尿病患病率、发病率和死亡率相结合。对人均直接成本、年度总成本、糖尿病患者与非糖尿病患者的成本比率以及可归因成本进行了估算。运行分析的源代码可在开放存取的 Zenodo 代码库中查阅：2010 年，1 型糖尿病和 2 型糖尿病的总医疗费用分别超过 10 亿欧元和 280 亿欧元。根据不同的情况，预计到 2040 年，每年的总费用将比 2010 年显著增加，1 型糖尿病增加 1-281% （10 亿至 40 亿欧元），2 型糖尿病增加 8-364% （300 亿至 1,310 亿欧元）。在相对可能的情况下，2040 年 1 型和 2 型糖尿病的总费用分别约为 20 亿欧元和 790 亿欧元。根据每年的成本增长（现实情况为每年 1%，极端情况为每年 5%），我们估计 2040 年 1 型糖尿病的人均年成本为 6581 欧元至 12057 欧元，2 型糖尿病的人均年成本为 5245 欧元至 8999 欧元：糖尿病给德国带来了巨大的经济负担，预计到 2040 年，这一负担还将大幅增加。发病率和成本增长的时间趋势是导致经济负担增加的主要原因。这凸显了采取紧急行动应对潜在发展并减轻其后果的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Population Health Metrics PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

6.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

29 weeks

期刊介绍： Population Health Metrics aims to advance the science of population health assessment, and welcomes papers relating to concepts, methods, ethics, applications, and summary measures of population health. The journal provides a unique platform for population health researchers to share their findings with the global community. We seek research that addresses the communication of population health measures and policy implications to stakeholders; this includes papers related to burden estimation and risk assessment, and research addressing population health across the full range of development. Population Health Metrics covers a broad range of topics encompassing health state measurement and valuation, summary measures of population health, descriptive epidemiology at the population level, burden of disease and injury analysis, disease and risk factor modeling for populations, and comparative assessment of risks to health at the population level. The journal is also interested in how to use and communicate indicators of population health to reduce disease burden, and the approaches for translating from indicators of population health to health-advancing actions. As a cross-cutting topic of importance, we are particularly interested in inequalities in population health and their measurement.