Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China’s Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

IF 3.4 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Chinese Geographical Science Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI:10.1007/s11769-024-1439-4
Xiyong Hou, Baiyuan Song, Xueying Zhang, Xiaoli Wang, Dong Li
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Abstract

Increased human activities in China’s coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources. Thus, conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones. System dynamic (SD)-future land use simulation (FLUS) model, a coupled simulation model, was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China’s coastal zone. This model encompasses five scenarios, namely, SSP1-RCP2.6 (A), SSP2-RCP4.5 (B), SSP3-RCP4.5 (C), SSP4-RCP4.5 (D), and SSP5-RCP8.5 (E). The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100. Subsequently, the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term (2035), medium term (2050), and long term (2100). Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China’s coastal zone from 2000–2020. Among these changes, the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease. By 2100, land use predictions exhibit high accuracy, and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios. In summary, the expansion of production, living, and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent. Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence, benefiting ecological land protection. Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands. Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production, while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage. Lastly, in Scenario E, the conflict between humans and land intensifies. This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development, utilization, and management of coastal areas in China. The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed, long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

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基于 SD-FLUS 耦合模型的中国海岸带 LUCC 多情景模拟与时空分析
中国海岸带人类活动的增加导致了生态土地资源的枯竭。因此,开展当前和未来土地利用与土地覆被变化(LUCC)的多情景模拟研究对于指导海岸带的健康和可持续发展至关重要。为分析中国海岸带的土地利用动态,建立了系统动态(SD)-未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)耦合模拟模型。该模型包括五个情景,即 SSP1-RCP2.6(A)、SSP2-RCP4.5(B)、SSP3-RCP4.5(C)、SSP4-RCP4.5(D)和 SSP5-RCP8.5(E)。SD 模型模拟直至 2100 年的每年土地使用需求。随后,FLUS 模型确定了近期(2035 年)、中期(2050 年)和长期(2100 年)的土地利用空间分布。结果显示,2000-2020 年,中国沿海地区土地利用变化呈减缓趋势。在这些变化中,建设用地的扩张速度最快,且呈逐年下降趋势。到 2100 年,土地利用预测显示出较高的准确性,不同情景下的趋势存在明显差异。总之,生产、生活和生态空间向海洋扩展的趋势依然突出。情景 A 强调减少对土地资源的依赖,有利于生态用地保护。情景 B 则强化了人工湿地的扩张。情景 C 显示了大量的生活和生产用地需求,而情景 D 则显示了沿海森林和草地的萎缩。最后,在情景 E 中,人类与土地之间的冲突加剧。本研究为中国沿海地区未来的开发、利用和管理提出了中肯的建议。该研究为沿海地区知情的长期战略决策提供了宝贵的科学支持。
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来源期刊
Chinese Geographical Science
Chinese Geographical Science 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
6.10
自引率
5.90%
发文量
63
审稿时长
3.0 months
期刊介绍: Chinese Geographical Science is an international journal, sponsored by Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and published by Science Press, Beijing, China. Chinese Geographical Science is devoted to leading scientific and technological innovation in geography, serving development in China, and promoting international scientific exchange. The journal mainly covers physical geography and its sub-disciplines, human geography and its sub-disciplines, cartography, remote sensing, and geographic information systems. It pays close attention to the major issues the world is concerned with, such as the man-land relationship, population, resources, environment, globalization and regional development.
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