Bridge performance degradation model based on the multi-variate bayesian dynamic linear method

IF 2.1 4区 工程技术 Q2 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Advances in Structural Engineering Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI:10.1177/13694332241266541
Guojun Yang, Li Tian, Jianbo Mao, Guangwu Tang, Yongfeng Du
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Abstract

The degradation of bridge structural performance arises from the combined influence of various factors. Performance assessment and reliable prediction of bridge performance degradation through effective utilizing of detection information updates is a challenging problem. In this paper, the concept of performance indicators is redefined, employing to delineate bridge performance degradation. A bridge performance degradation model (the error ≤8%) is formulated, considering the multiple-variable Bayesian dynamic linear method (MBDLM) and revealing the coupling mechanisms among factors influencing bridge performance degradation. On this basis, the prediction performance of the model is quantitatively evaluated by three metrics: mean squared error, predictive mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error. A methodology is presented for the assessment, prediction, and maintenance reinforcement of in-service bridge structural performance degradation. This approach holds promise for future applications in safety assessments and the decision-making process for preventive maintenance of operational bridges.
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基于多变量贝叶斯动态线性法的桥梁性能退化模型
桥梁结构性能的退化源于各种因素的综合影响。通过有效利用检测信息更新,对桥梁性能退化进行性能评估和可靠预测是一个具有挑战性的问题。本文重新定义了性能指标的概念,并将其用于划分桥梁性能退化。考虑多变量贝叶斯动态线性法(MBDLM),建立了桥梁性能退化模型(误差≤8%),揭示了桥梁性能退化影响因素之间的耦合机制。在此基础上,通过三个指标对模型的预测性能进行了定量评估:均方误差、预测均方误差和平均绝对百分比误差。提出了一种用于评估、预测和维修加固在役桥梁结构性能退化的方法。这种方法有望在未来应用于安全评估和运营桥梁预防性维护的决策过程中。
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来源期刊
Advances in Structural Engineering
Advances in Structural Engineering 工程技术-工程:土木
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
11.50%
发文量
230
审稿时长
2.3 months
期刊介绍: Advances in Structural Engineering was established in 1997 and has become one of the major peer-reviewed journals in the field of structural engineering. To better fulfil the mission of the journal, we have recently decided to launch two new features for the journal: (a) invited review papers providing an in-depth exposition of a topic of significant current interest; (b) short papers reporting truly new technologies in structural engineering.
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