Towards sustainable coastal management: a hybrid model for vulnerability and risk assessment

IF 1.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Coastal Conservation Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI:10.1007/s11852-024-01065-y
Ahmet Durap, Can Elmar Balas
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Abstract

This paper presents the development of a Hybrid Model (HM) integrated with a Bayesian Network (BN) for comprehensive coastal vulnerability and risk assessment, with a focus on Konyaaltı Beach, Antalya, Turkey. The HM incorporates critical environmental parameters such as wind, waves, currents, and sediment transport to simulate conditions at vulnerable coastal areas and perform risk assessments for storm effects, flooding, and erosion. The model includes submodules for predicting coastal storms, quantifying sediment transport rates, assessing tsunami inundation severity, and categorizing storms based on beach typologies. The Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is utilized for significant wave height predictions, enhancing the model's accuracy. The integration of hydrodynamic modeling, Bayesian networks, and ANFIS offers a robust framework for assessing coastal vulnerability and informing sustainable management practices. The study's results highlight the necessity for integrated risk management strategies, including adaptive infrastructure design, zoning and land use regulations, ecosystem-based management, and continuous monitoring and model refinement to enhance coastal resilience against dynamic environmental forces. This research provides valuable insights for mitigating the impacts of hazards on urban developments, contributing to the advancement of sustainable coastal management.

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实现可持续的沿海管理:脆弱性和风险评估的混合模式
本文介绍了混合模式(HM)的开发情况,该模式与贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合,用于沿海 脆弱性和风险的综合评估,重点是土耳其安塔利亚的 Konyaalti 海滩。HM 模型纳入了风、波浪、海流和沉积物运移等关键环境参数,以模拟脆弱沿海地区的状况,并对风暴影响、洪水和侵蚀进行风险评估。该模型包括用于预测沿海风暴、量化沉积物运移速率、评估海啸淹没严重程度以及根据海滩类型对风暴进行分类的子模块。自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)用于预测显著波高,提高了模型的准确性。水动力建模、贝叶斯网络和自适应神经模糊推理系统的整合为评估海岸脆弱性和可持续管理实践提供了一个强大的框架。研究结果强调了综合风险管理战略的必要性,包括适应性基础设施设计、分区和土地使用法规、基于生态系统的管理以及持续监测和模型改进,以增强海岸对动态环境力量的适应能力。这项研究为减轻灾害对城市发展的影响提供了宝贵的见解,有助于推进可持续沿海管理。
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来源期刊
Journal of Coastal Conservation
Journal of Coastal Conservation ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
4.80%
发文量
55
期刊介绍: The Journal of Coastal Conservation is a scientific journal for the dissemination of both theoretical and applied research on integrated and sustainable management of the terrestrial, coastal and marine environmental interface. A thorough understanding of both the physical and the human sciences is important to the study of the spatial patterns and processes observed in terrestrial, coastal and marine systems set in the context of past, present and future social and economic developments. This includes multidisciplinary and integrated knowledge and understanding of: physical geography, coastal geomorphology, sediment dynamics, hydrodynamics, soil science, hydrology, plant and animal ecology, vegetation science, biogeography, landscape ecology, recreation and tourism studies, urban and human ecology, coastal engineering and spatial planning, coastal zone management, and marine resource management.
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