Estimating causal effects for binary outcomes using per-decision inverse probability weighting.

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI:10.1093/biostatistics/kxae025
Yihan Bao, Lauren Bell, Elizabeth Williamson, Claire Garnett, Tianchen Qian
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Abstract

Micro-randomized trials are commonly conducted for optimizing mobile health interventions such as push notifications for behavior change. In analyzing such trials, causal excursion effects are often of primary interest, and their estimation typically involves inverse probability weighting (IPW). However, in a micro-randomized trial, additional treatments can often occur during the time window over which an outcome is defined, and this can greatly inflate the variance of the causal effect estimator because IPW would involve a product of numerous weights. To reduce variance and improve estimation efficiency, we propose two new estimators using a modified version of IPW, which we call "per-decision IPW." The second estimator further improves efficiency using the projection idea from the semiparametric efficiency theory. These estimators are applicable when the outcome is binary and can be expressed as the maximum of a series of sub-outcomes defined over sub-intervals of time. We establish the estimators' consistency and asymptotic normality. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we demonstrate substantial efficiency improvement of the proposed estimator over existing estimators. The new estimators can be used to improve the precision of primary and secondary analyses for micro-randomized trials with binary outcomes.

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使用每次决定的反概率加权法估算二元结果的因果效应。
微随机试验通常用于优化移动健康干预措施,如推送行为改变通知。在分析此类试验时,因果偏移效应通常是主要关注点,其估算通常涉及反概率加权(IPW)。然而,在微观随机试验中,在确定结果的时间窗口内经常会出现额外的治疗,这会大大增加因果效应估计值的方差,因为 IPW 会涉及众多权重的乘积。为了减少方差并提高估计效率,我们提出了两个使用改进版 IPW 的新估计器,我们称之为 "每次决定 IPW"。第二个估计器利用半参数效率理论中的投影思想进一步提高了效率。这些估计器适用于结果为二进制的情况,并可表示为一系列子结果的最大值,这些子结果定义在时间的子区间内。我们确定了估计值的一致性和渐近正态性。通过模拟研究和实际数据应用,我们证明了与现有的估计器相比,所提出的估计器在效率上有了很大的提高。新估计器可用于提高二元结果微型随机试验的一级和二级分析精度。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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