The Role of Inflation in Moderate Interaction of Gold Rolling Spots and Macroeconomic Variables on the ICDX Exchange

Abstract

Gold has played an essential role in building payment systems in the past and remains a popular investment product today. One such investment product is the Gold Rolling Spot, a variation of a futures contract derivative transaction traded on the Indonesian Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX). Nevertheless, no research has been done since this sort of investment is exclusive to ICDX. This study uses inflation as the moderation to analyze the effect of the Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) return, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate (USD/IDR) return on the Gold Rolling Spot return. This study used monthly data for the period January 2020 until December 2023. The analysis technique used is Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The results concluded that ICI return has a significant positive effect on Gold Rolling Spot return, while interest rate, exchange rate (USD/IDR) return, and Inflation, have a significant negative impact on Gold Rolling Spot return. Inflation moderates the effect of interest rate and exchange rate (USD/IDR) return on Gold Rolling Spot return. However, Inflation does not moderate the impact of ICI return on Gold Rolling Spot return.