Use of proxy observations to evaluate the accuracy of precipitation spatial gridding

Abstract

A WRF-based high-resolution reanalysis of the Irish climate (1981–2010) is used to create proxy daily precipitation observations at the locations of climatological sites used for precipitation monitoring; the data are statistically representative of the real precipitation climate both for mean (over monthly, seasonal and annual periods) and extreme values. The proxy observations are spatially interpolated to the original WRF grid using a typical gridding package and compared against the original data to assess gridding errors. The errors are more complex than the estimates provided by the gridding software; systematic biases are evident which by the inclusion of strategically placed additional observing sites are shown to be greatly reduced. There is also evidence of systematic differences in trend analyses of extreme precipitation over the period. The method provides independent estimates of the errors that arise from actual gridding applications. It also facilitates the testing of the optimality of a network by highlighting possible inadequacies in an existing station layout and suggesting new observing site locations to fill gaps. Uncertainties regarding the errors in real precipitation observations, and possible spurious impacts linked to temporal changes in the real observing network, are avoided by this method.