Possible changes of Pinus nigra distribution regions in Türkiye with the impacts of global climate change

Abstract

Global climate change poses significant threats to ecosystems worldwide, particularly impacting long-lived forest tree species such as Pinus nigra. This study assessed the potential shifts in distribution areas for Pinus nigra, an important tree species, one highly vulnerable to global climate change, given its prevalence in continental climates, in Türkiye under different climate scenarios (SSPs 585 and 245). In this study, suitable distribution regions of Pinus nigra were evaluated based on SSPs 585 and SSPs 245 using nine different models. Results indicated potential losses in Pinus nigra distribution areas ranging from 15.0% to 43.5% (SSPs 245) and 19.7% to 48.9% (SSPs 585) by 2100. However, in 2100, new suitable distribution areas are expected to be formed at rates ranging from 13.8% to 32.1% and 15.1% to 34.4% according to the above scenarios. Because most of the newly formed suitable distribution regions are quite far from the areas where the species currently spreads, it seems necessary to provide the migration mechanism needed by the species by humans to prevent population losses in this process.