Response and prediction of ecosystem service values to land use change resulting from underground coal mining in high groundwater table areas: A case study of Jining City, China

IF 5.4 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.1016/j.indic.2024.100441
Hao Fu , Bo Chai , Chun Jin , Hongyuan Kang , Yan Zhang , Xiuquan Tan , Wei Wang
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Abstract

Ecosystem services are crucial for human survival and development. Changes in land use can lead to alterations in ecosystem service functions. However, the mechanism of how land use changes resulting from underground coal mining affect ecosystem service remains unclear, especially in areas with high groundwater levels. To address this issue, we studied the spatiotemporal in land use change in Jining City from 2000 to 2020 and employed Markov-PIM (probability integration method)-PLUS (Patch-generate Land Use Simulation) model to simulate land use change and ecosystem service values (ESV) in Jining City by 2030 under four different scenarios. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the area of ecological space increased by 169.99 km2, and the area of living space expanded by 775.28 km2, while the area of production space decreased by 945.27 km2, conversely. These changes led to a 3 million yuan increase in total ESV. From 2020 to 2030, there was a marked decline in ESV under both natural development (ND) and living space preference (LSP) scenarios, with decreases of 0.59 billion yuan and 1.38 billion yuan, respectively. In contrast, in production space preference (PSP) and ecological space preference (ESP) scenarios, ESV increase by 0.22 billion yuan and 0.34 billion yuan. The ESP scenario is an effective strategy to strengthen environmental protection, significantly improve the ESV level of Jining City and meet the development goals of Jining City. Finally, the study concludes with recommendations like comprehensive management, industrial upgrading, and collaborative development for optimizing Jining City's future land use and enhance ESV for urban development.

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高地下水位地区地下采煤导致的土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的响应与预测:中国济宁市案例研究
生态系统服务对人类的生存和发展至关重要。土地利用的变化会导致生态系统服务功能的改变。然而,地下采煤导致的土地利用变化如何影响生态系统服务的机制仍不清楚,尤其是在地下水位较高的地区。针对这一问题,我们研究了济宁市 2000-2020 年土地利用的时空变化,并采用 Markov-PIM(概率积分法)-PLUS(斑块生成土地利用模拟)模型模拟了四种不同情景下济宁市 2030 年的土地利用变化和生态系统服务价值(ESV)。结果表明,从 2000 年到 2020 年,生态空间面积增加了 169.99 平方公里,生活空间面积扩大了 775.28 平方公里,而生产空间面积减少了 945.27 平方公里。这些变化导致总 ESV 增加 300 万元。从 2020 年到 2030 年,在自然发展(ND)和生活空间偏好(LSP)情景下,ESV 都有明显下降,分别减少了 5.9 亿元和 13.8 亿元。相比之下,在生产空间偏好(PSP)和生态空间偏好(ESP)情景下,ESV 分别增加了 2.2 亿元和 3.4 亿元。ESP情景是加强环境保护、显著提高济宁市ESV水平、实现济宁市发展目标的有效策略。最后,研究提出了综合治理、产业升级、协同发展等建议,以优化济宁市未来土地利用,提高城市发展的ESV。
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来源期刊
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
7.80
自引率
2.30%
发文量
49
审稿时长
57 days
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