Crop yield estimation at different growing stages using a synergy of SAR and optical remote sensing data

Abstract

Crop yield forecasting is an essential component of crop production assessment, impacting people at the global scale down to the level of individual farms. Until now, yield forecasting has predominantly relied on optical data, particularly the maximum value of vegetation indexes. However, this approach only presents a short forecasting window, and it is essential to obtain yield estimates as early as possible in the growing season and then further improve forecasting even after the vegetation index has reached its peak. So far, optical satellite data at high-temporal resolution (1–3 days) has been actively used for real time crop yield monitoring, whereas fewer operational models make a use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). In this study, we explore whether SAR data can capture distinct aspects of crop dynamics, providing new insights for yield estimation depending on the crop's phenological stage. We assess the efficiency of dual- (Sentinel-1) and quad-polarimetric (UAVSAR, RADARSAT-2) data to explain inter-field crop yield variability for corn, soybean, and rice over a test area in Arkansas, US (258 fields, 2019). We used optical imagery acquired by Planet/Dove-Classic, Sentinel-2, and Landsat 8, to establish a baseline performance of satellite-based indicators to explain yield variability and assess dual- and quad-polarimetric SAR data for crop yield assessment. In terms of polarimetric indexes, the results showed that in general the results for rice were mostly stable and better than the other crops (R²_adj ∼ 0.4 on average). The best results were obtained for the Sentinel-1 VH_asc with R²_adj = 0.47 and RADARSAT-2 phase difference with R²_adj = 0.45. The results for corn performed the least with an R²_adj <0.35 for all the indexes. The results for soybeans were more variable and were highly correlated with certain indicators such as RADARSAT-2 HV, RADARSAT-2 Volume, and RADARSAT-2 Pauli HV with R²_adj>0.4. We also investigated the day of year (DOY) with the maximum correlation between optical and SAR-derived features and the final yields for corn, soybean, and rice. The maximum correlation for optical features occurs over a short time between DOY 155 (June 4) and 185 (July 5) for corn and rice, and DOY 190 (July 9) and DOY 211 (July 30) for soybean, with these results being consistent across various optical-based sensors. On the contrary, the maximum correlation for SAR-derived features varied significantly and was between DOY 120 (April 30) to DOY 225 (August 13). A study of the time series parameters cross-correlation showed that the optical parameters were highly correlated, but the SAR parameters showed strong temporal decorrelation. We conducted a comparison between C-band and L-band to assess their sensitivity at each stage of growth. In this experiment, we determined that for low vegetation, the C band will be more useful at the beginning of the growth cycle, while the L band provides more information in later stages of growth. Using a random forest regression model combining SAR parameters with common difference vegetation index (DVI), we improved the error by 50% in comparison to the error using the (DVI) for corn, soybean, and rice.