A mathematical model for economic and prognostic studies of solar photovoltaic power: Application to China, the EU, the USA, Japan and India compared to worldwide production

Abstract

It is not easy to make precise predictions about solar energy generation in the coming decades. However, it is generally expected to play an increasingly important role in the global energy mix in the near future. There are several trends that suggest solar energy will continue to grow in the coming years meet the global energy needs. Therefore, a mathematical model based on the diffusion of installation sales of solar photovoltaic (S-PV) power in a certain market is presented. The present study begins with some mathematical modifications to the Bass diffusion model (BDM), and applies these modifications to the S-PV worldwide-market and different countries. Calculations using the BDM leads to the saturation of the “market,” which means a saturation of S-PV production, corresponding to the saturation of the S-PV market’s production (national/country production). This leads to precise predictions of S-PV production values at the national levels.