Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Incidence of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China Based on SARIMA Models Between 2013 and 2021.

IF 3.8 4区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-30 DOI:10.1007/s44197-024-00273-x
Jingwen Liu, Wu Zeng, Chao Zhuo, Yu Liu, Lei Zhu, Guanyang Zou
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Abstract

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government implemented nationwide public health interventions to control its spread. However, the impact of these measures on other infectious diseases remains unclear.

Methods: The incidence of three types of notifiable infectious diseases in China were analyzed between 2013 and 2021. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test and Mann-Kendall mutation test were employed to examine trends and mutations in the time series. Based on the counterfactual inference, historical incidence rates were employed to construct SARIMA models and predict incidence between January 2020 and December 2021. Differences between reported and predicted incidences during the pandemic were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test.

Results: Between 2013 and 2019, the incidence rate of three types of notifiable infectious diseases fluctuated between 494.05/100,000 and 550.62/100,000. No discernible trend was observed for types A and B infectious diseases (Z = -1.344, P = 0.18). A significant upward trend was observed for type C infectious diseases (Z = 2.56, P = 0.01). In 2020, the overall incidence rate of three types of notifiable infectious diseases decreased to 367.08/100,000. Compared to predicted values, the reported incidence of three types of infectious diseases was, on average, 30.05% lower in 2020 and 16.58% lower in 2021.

Conclusion: The public health interventions implemented during the pandemic had a positive consequence on the prevention and control of other infectious diseases, with a particularly notable effect on type C infectious diseases. Among the diseases with different transmission routes, respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases decreased significantly.

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基于 SARIMA 模型的 COVID-19 大流行对 2013 至 2021 年中国应报传染病发病率的影响。
背景:在 COVID-19 大流行期间,中国政府在全国范围内实施了公共卫生干预措施,以控制其传播。然而,这些措施对其他传染病的影响尚不清楚:方法:分析了 2013 年至 2021 年间中国三种应报告传染病的发病率。采用季节性 Mann-Kendall 检验和 Mann-Kendall 突变检验来研究时间序列的趋势和突变。在反事实推断的基础上,利用历史发病率构建 SARIMA 模型,预测 2020 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月的发病率。采用 Mann-Whitney U 检验比较了大流行期间报告发病率与预测发病率之间的差异:结果:2013 年至 2019 年期间,三种应报告传染病的发病率在 494.05/100,000 和 550.62/100,000 之间波动。甲类和乙类传染病的发病率没有明显趋势(Z = -1.344, P = 0.18)。丙类传染病的发病率呈明显上升趋势(Z = 2.56,P = 0.01)。2020 年,三类应报告传染病的总体发病率降至 367.08/100,000。与预测值相比,2020 年三种传染病的报告发病率平均降低了 30.05%,2021 年降低了 16.58%:大流行期间实施的公共卫生干预措施对预防和控制其他传染病产生了积极影响,对丙类传染病的影响尤为显著。在传播途径不同的疾病中,呼吸道疾病和胃肠道或肠道病毒疾病明显减少。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
1.40%
发文量
57
审稿时长
19 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health is an esteemed international publication, offering a platform for peer-reviewed articles that drive advancements in global epidemiology and international health. Our mission is to shape global health policy by showcasing cutting-edge scholarship and innovative strategies.
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