{"title":"Development and validation of prognostic nomogram in pediatric melanoma: a population-based study.","authors":"Saichun Zhang, Zixiang Liu, Dongsheng Zhu","doi":"10.1097/CMR.0000000000000993","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The aim of the study is to use the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to develop a useful clinical nomogram that uses prognosis prediction for pediatric melanoma patients. We obtained clinical information on pediatric melanoma patients from the SEER database between 2000 and 2018. Each patient was split into a training cohort or a validation cohort at random. Results between various subgroups were compared using Kaplan-Meier analyses. We created a nomogram to calculate the probability of survival for pediatric patients with melanoma. The performance of nomograms was assessed using calibration and discrimination. To assess the clinical use of this newly created model, decision curve analysis was also performed. In this study, a total of 890 eligible patients were chosen at random and allocated to 70% of training cohorts ( n = 623) and 30% of validation cohorts ( n = 267). After applying the chosen various components to create a nomogram, validated indexes showed that the nomogram had a strong capacity for discrimination. The training set's and validation set's C-index values were 0.817 and 0.832, respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated a strong correlation between the observation and the forecast. The model has a good clinical net benefit for pediatric melanoma patients, according to the clinical decision curve. In conclusion, we created an effective survival prediction model for pediatric melanoma. This nomogram is accurate and useful for clinical decision-making. Still, more external confirmation is required.</p>","PeriodicalId":18550,"journal":{"name":"Melanoma Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Melanoma Research","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/CMR.0000000000000993","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/10/30 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"DERMATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The aim of the study is to use the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to develop a useful clinical nomogram that uses prognosis prediction for pediatric melanoma patients. We obtained clinical information on pediatric melanoma patients from the SEER database between 2000 and 2018. Each patient was split into a training cohort or a validation cohort at random. Results between various subgroups were compared using Kaplan-Meier analyses. We created a nomogram to calculate the probability of survival for pediatric patients with melanoma. The performance of nomograms was assessed using calibration and discrimination. To assess the clinical use of this newly created model, decision curve analysis was also performed. In this study, a total of 890 eligible patients were chosen at random and allocated to 70% of training cohorts ( n = 623) and 30% of validation cohorts ( n = 267). After applying the chosen various components to create a nomogram, validated indexes showed that the nomogram had a strong capacity for discrimination. The training set's and validation set's C-index values were 0.817 and 0.832, respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated a strong correlation between the observation and the forecast. The model has a good clinical net benefit for pediatric melanoma patients, according to the clinical decision curve. In conclusion, we created an effective survival prediction model for pediatric melanoma. This nomogram is accurate and useful for clinical decision-making. Still, more external confirmation is required.
期刊介绍:
Melanoma Research is a well established international forum for the dissemination of new findings relating to melanoma. The aim of the Journal is to promote the level of informational exchange between those engaged in the field. Melanoma Research aims to encourage an informed and balanced view of experimental and clinical research and extend and stimulate communication and exchange of knowledge between investigators with differing areas of expertise. This will foster the development of translational research. The reporting of new clinical results and the effect and toxicity of new therapeutic agents and immunotherapy will be given emphasis by rapid publication of Short Communications. Thus, Melanoma Research seeks to present a coherent and up-to-date account of all aspects of investigations pertinent to melanoma. Consequently the scope of the Journal is broad, embracing the entire range of studies from fundamental and applied research in such subject areas as genetics, molecular biology, biochemistry, cell biology, photobiology, pathology, immunology, and advances in clinical oncology influencing the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of melanoma.