Development and validation of prognostic nomogram in pediatric melanoma: a population-based study.

IF 1.5 4区 医学 Q3 DERMATOLOGY Melanoma Research Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-30 DOI:10.1097/CMR.0000000000000993
Saichun Zhang, Zixiang Liu, Dongsheng Zhu
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Abstract

The aim of the study is to use the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to develop a useful clinical nomogram that uses prognosis prediction for pediatric melanoma patients. We obtained clinical information on pediatric melanoma patients from the SEER database between 2000 and 2018. Each patient was split into a training cohort or a validation cohort at random. Results between various subgroups were compared using Kaplan-Meier analyses. We created a nomogram to calculate the probability of survival for pediatric patients with melanoma. The performance of nomograms was assessed using calibration and discrimination. To assess the clinical use of this newly created model, decision curve analysis was also performed. In this study, a total of 890 eligible patients were chosen at random and allocated to 70% of training cohorts ( n  = 623) and 30% of validation cohorts ( n  = 267). After applying the chosen various components to create a nomogram, validated indexes showed that the nomogram had a strong capacity for discrimination. The training set's and validation set's C-index values were 0.817 and 0.832, respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated a strong correlation between the observation and the forecast. The model has a good clinical net benefit for pediatric melanoma patients, according to the clinical decision curve. In conclusion, we created an effective survival prediction model for pediatric melanoma. This nomogram is accurate and useful for clinical decision-making. Still, more external confirmation is required.

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儿科黑色素瘤预后提名图的开发与验证:一项基于人群的研究。
本研究的目的是利用监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库,为儿科黑色素瘤患者开发一个有用的临床预后预测提名图。我们从 SEER 数据库中获取了 2000 年至 2018 年间儿科黑色素瘤患者的临床信息。每位患者被随机分成训练组或验证组。我们使用卡普兰-梅耶分析比较了不同亚组之间的结果。我们创建了一个提名图来计算儿科黑色素瘤患者的生存概率。通过校准和辨别评估了提名图的性能。为了评估这个新创建模型的临床应用,我们还进行了决策曲线分析。在这项研究中,共随机选择了 890 名符合条件的患者,并将其分配到 70% 的训练队列(623 人)和 30% 的验证队列(267 人)中。在应用所选的各种成分创建提名图后,验证指标显示提名图具有很强的分辨能力。训练集和验证集的 C 指数值分别为 0.817 和 0.832。校准图显示观察结果与预测结果之间具有很强的相关性。根据临床决策曲线,该模型对小儿黑色素瘤患者具有良好的临床净效益。总之,我们创建了一个有效的小儿黑色素瘤生存预测模型。该提名图准确且有助于临床决策。但仍需要更多的外部证实。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Melanoma Research
Melanoma Research 医学-皮肤病学
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
4.50%
发文量
139
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: ​​​​​​Melanoma Research is a well established international forum for the dissemination of new findings relating to melanoma. The aim of the Journal is to promote the level of informational exchange between those engaged in the field. Melanoma Research aims to encourage an informed and balanced view of experimental and clinical research and extend and stimulate communication and exchange of knowledge between investigators with differing areas of expertise. This will foster the development of translational research. The reporting of new clinical results and the effect and toxicity of new therapeutic agents and immunotherapy will be given emphasis by rapid publication of Short Communications. ​Thus, Melanoma Research seeks to present a coherent and up-to-date account of all aspects of investigations pertinent to melanoma. Consequently the scope of the Journal is broad, embracing the entire range of studies from fundamental and applied research in such subject areas as genetics, molecular biology, biochemistry, cell biology, photobiology, pathology, immunology, and advances in clinical oncology influencing the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of melanoma.
期刊最新文献
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