Challenges to Viticulture in Montenegro under Climate Change

IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI:10.3390/ijgi13080270
António Fernandes, Nataša Kovač, Hélder Fraga, André Fonseca, Sanja Šućur Radonjić, Marko Simeunović, Kruna Ratković, Christoph Menz, Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes, João A. Santos
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Abstract

The Montenegrin climate is characterised as very heterogeneous due to its complex topography. The viticultural heritage, dating back to before the Roman empire, is settled in a Mediterranean climate region, located south of the capital Podgorica, where climate conditions favour red wine production. However, an overall increase in warmer and drier periods affects traditional viticulture. The present study aims to discuss climate change impacts on Montenegrin viticulture. Bioclimatic indices, ensembled from five climate models, were analysed for both historical (1981–2010) and future (2041–2070) periods upon three socio-economic pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. CHELSA (≈1 km) was the selected dataset for this analysis. Obtained results for all scenarios have shown the suppression of baseline conditions for viticulture. The average summer temperature might reach around 29.5 °C, and the growing season average temperature could become higher than 23.5 °C, advancing phenological events. The Winkler index is estimated to range from 2900 °C up to 3100 °C, which is too hot for viticulture. Montenegrin viticulture requires the application of adaptation measures focused on reducing temperature-increase impacts. The implementation of adaptation measures shall start in the coming years, to assure the lasting productivity and sustainability of viticulture.
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气候变化对黑山葡萄栽培的挑战
由于地形复杂,黑山的气候特征非常多变。位于首都波德戈里察南部的地中海气候区的葡萄栽培传统可追溯到罗马帝国之前,那里的气候条件有利于红葡萄酒的生产。然而,气候变暖和干旱期的总体增加影响了传统的葡萄栽培。本研究旨在讨论气候变化对黑山葡萄栽培的影响。本研究根据三种社会经济路径,分析了由五个气候模型组合而成的历史(1981-2010 年)和未来(2041-2070 年)时期的生物气候指数:SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5。本次分析选择了 CHELSA(≈1 km)数据集。所有方案的结果都表明,葡萄栽培的基准条件受到抑制。夏季平均气温可能达到 29.5 °C左右,生长季节平均气温可能高于 23.5 °C,使物候期提前。温克勒指数估计在 2900 °C 至 3100 °C 之间,这对葡萄栽培来说太热了。黑山葡萄栽培需要采取适应措施,重点是减少温度升高的影响。适应措施应在未来几年开始实施,以确保葡萄栽培的持久生产力和可持续性。
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来源期刊
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICALREMOTE SENSING&nb-REMOTE SENSING
CiteScore
6.90
自引率
11.80%
发文量
520
审稿时长
19.87 days
期刊介绍: ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information (ISSN 2220-9964) provides an advanced forum for the science and technology of geographic information. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information publishes regular research papers, reviews and communications. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical results in as much detail as possible. There is no restriction on the length of the papers. The full experimental details must be provided so that the results can be reproduced. The 2018 IJGI Outstanding Reviewer Award has been launched! This award acknowledge those who have generously dedicated their time to review manuscripts submitted to IJGI. See full details at http://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijgi/awards.
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