Yu Kanaji, Rob Williams, Alexandre N. Zerbini, Trevor A. Branch
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工业捕鲸结束后，大多数须鲸种群数量都在增加，但它们的恢复模式对长期以来有关密度依赖性的假设提出了挑战。长期以来，人们一直认为种群增长率会随着恢复而下降，直到达到平衡（"承载能力"，K）。事实上，国际捕鲸委员会假定，在达到 K 之前，增长率就会放缓，在 0.6K 时达到最大生产力。这个 0.6K 的种群水平被用作国际基准，是捕鲸法规和决定是否宣布须鲸种群枯竭的基础。我们对从低丰度到高丰度范围内具有多个丰度估计值的四个须鲸长期数据集进行了模型拟合，发现有力的证据表明，在广泛的丰度水平范围内，增加率保持在接近最大水平，只有当种群接近 K 时才会下降。与目前假设的 0.6K 相比，这些值的总体平均值（0.8K）将是更合理的默认选择。综合与应用。估计的恢复率意味着，目前使用的管理阈值低于实际的最大生产力，即使在高丰度时，种群也能迅速增加。然而，如果种群模型继续假定最大生产力为 0.6K，那么相对于 K 的丰度估计值将低于实际值，从而提供保守的评估结果。我们的研究结果应能激发人们进一步讨论最大持续产量作为渔业和野生动物管理基本概念的作用。
期刊介绍：
Journal of Applied Ecology publishes novel, high-impact papers on the interface between ecological science and the management of biological resources.The editors encourage contributions that use applied ecological problems to test and develop basic theory, although there must be clear potential for impact on the management of the environment.
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