Natalja L Stanski, Bin Zhang, Natalie Z Cvijanovich, Julie C Fitzgerald, Michael T Bigham, Parag N Jain, Adam J Schwarz, Riad Lutfi, Geoffrey L Allen, Neal J Thomas, Torrey Baines, Bereketeab Haileselassie, Scott L Weiss, Mihir R Atreya, Andrew J Lautz, Basilia Zingarelli, Stephen W Standage, Jennifer Kaplan, Stuart L Goldstein
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objectives: We previously derived the updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk for Acute Kidney Injury (PERSEVERE-II AKI) prediction model, which had robust diagnostic test characteristics for severe AKI on day 3 (D3 severe AKI) of septic shock. We now sought to validate this model in an independent cohort of children to the one in which the model was developed.
Design: A secondary analysis of a multicenter, prospective, observational study carried out from January 2019 to December 2022.
Setting: Ten PICUs in the United States.
Patients: Children with septic shock 1 week to 18 years old admitted to the PICU.
Interventions: None.
Measurements and main results: Seventy-nine of 363 patients (22%) had D3 severe AKI, defined as Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes stage 2 or higher. Patients were assigned a probability of D3 severe AKI using the PERSEVERE-II AKI model. The model predicted D3 severe AKI with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.85-0.93), sensitivity of 77% (95% CI, 66-86%), specificity of 88% (95% CI, 84-92%), positive predictive value of 65% (95% CI, 54-74%), and negative predictive value of 93% (95% CI, 89-96%). These data represent an increase in post-test probability of D3 severe AKI with a positive test from 22% to 65%, and a prevalence threshold of 28%. On multivariable regression, the PERSEVERE-II AKI prediction model demonstrated greater adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for D3 severe AKI (aOR, 11.2; 95% CI, 4.9-25.3) and lesser aOR for failure of D3 renal recovery from early AKI (aOR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.13-0.69).
Conclusions: The PERSEVERE-II AKI model demonstrates consistently robust performance for prediction of new or persistent D3 severe AKI in children with septic shock. A major limitation is that actual D3 severe AKI prevalence is below the prevalence threshold for the test, and thus future work should focus on evaluating use in enriched populations.
期刊介绍:
Pediatric Critical Care Medicine is written for the entire critical care team: pediatricians, neonatologists, respiratory therapists, nurses, and others who deal with pediatric patients who are critically ill or injured. International in scope, with editorial board members and contributors from around the world, the Journal includes a full range of scientific content, including clinical articles, scientific investigations, solicited reviews, and abstracts from pediatric critical care meetings. Additionally, the Journal includes abstracts of selected articles published in Chinese, French, Italian, Japanese, Portuguese, and Spanish translations - making news of advances in the field available to pediatric and neonatal intensive care practitioners worldwide.