Evaluating the impacts of anticipated sea level rise, climate change and land use land cover scenarios on the rice crop in Alappuzha, Kerala and strategies to build climate responsive agriculture

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to inform the readers an overview of expected impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and climate change on rice crops area, yield and the urgent need to build climate responsive infrastructures to a coastal district, Alappuzha – a high-risk area which is already under mean sea level (MSL). This research carried out to understand the realities and impacts with respect to the exposures of rise in SLR and possible inundation extent of crop land. The extreme precipitation events have caused crop loss and damage, numerous casualties and enormous economic loss in this district during the recent past and project the likely impacts under anticipated climate change. Design/methodology/approach Global sea levels have already been risen noticeably as a result of climate change, and this trend is anticipated to continue. To reflect on the research objectives, the paper projects a climate change scenario analysis and impact assessment on the major crop grown, i.e. rice, using a crop simulation model, DSSAT 4.7 as the first part of the study. QGIS 3.28 version and Erdas Imagine software were used for land use land cover analysis and to delineate possible inundation in the major land use land cover, especially in agriculture area under SLR scenario. It points out the need to equip the district urgently with climate responsive agriculture strategies as majority of the area comes under 10 mts of elevation as per the Sentinel 2 data. For better adapting to the current and future climate change impacts in the aspects of built environment such as early warnings in farm sector in particular and forests, urban water management, transportation systems, building construction and operation and land use planning in general. Climate change is no longer a policy issue alone; now it is a common man’s nightmare. For a coastal state like Kerala, extreme climate events during 2018 and 2019 and 2021 have posed substantial impacts and damages on the environment and society. The impacts hit the vulnerable communities in multiple ways. Findings From the analysis, it was revealed that there is an increasing trend in rainfall observed over the past three decades in Alappuzha district. It is projected that day and night time temperatures may increase in Alappuzha by 2.5°C and 2.6°C by 2100, respectively, under RCP 4.5. With unchecked pollution or emission reduction actions, warming may further rise and hence the median projection when SLR reaches 2.4 meters (8 ft) at Alappuzha to Cochin coast is 2130s. The possible inundation analysis shows that around 53.48% of the coastal agriculture land may be likely inundated if SLR is only with mitigation measures such as extreme carbon cuts, SLR rise can be delayed till 2200. Alappuzha is known as the rice bowl of Kerala; however, it is highly exposed to climate vulnerability in terms of its unique environmental geographical settings like coastal wetlands, lagoons and sand beaches. DSSAT simulations shows that Uma rice, a major ruling variety in the region, may have yield reductions of up to 13% in the near century for Alappuzha. Research limitations/implications This paper in general explains the projected climate change perspectives for Alappuzha, a climate change hotspot of Kerala with respect to SLR and coastal agriculture. and a review of the progression of DRR in the built environment and mainstreaming CCA and DRR by government and other agencies in the state. Practical implications This study underscores the urgent need for climate-responsive agricultural strategies in Alappuzha, Kerala, due to anticipated sea level rise, climate change, and land use changes. Equipping farmers with the knowledge and tools to adapt is essential for ensuring food security and sustainable livelihoods. Implementing climate-resilient practices and technologies will help mitigate adverse effects on rice crops, promoting economic stability and resilience in the region. Involving local stakeholders in the adaptation process is crucial, as their participation can enhance collaboration, increase awareness, and accelerate the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, making the transition smoother and more effective. Social implications It is the responsibility of the scientific community to inform the knowledge gained for the benefit of the society, especially on criticality of altering the existing land use pattern and building climate resilient coastal infrastructures. Studies such as this can stand as basis for implementing planned adaption actions. This is to conclude that instead of working in silos, mainstreaming climate change adaptation holistically across sectors is very necessary at this crucial hour. Participatory action plans and policies involving all local stakeholders can strengthen awareness and fasten the learning processes for adaptation including managed retreats. Originality/value At present, there are no specific studies, on the impacts of climate change and SLR on rice cropping systems in the district which specifically inform how to mainstream adaptation in the agriculture strategies in low lying coastal zones of Alappuzha.