The COVID-19 Pandemic in Britain: A Competence Shock and Its Electoral Consequences

Abstract

Competence shocks cut through partisan and other salient divides to impact party reputations and electoral choice. We examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic was a competence shock in Britain – a context where the issue of Brexit had otherwise dominated and reshaped electoral choice. Using British Election Study panel data between 2019 and 2022, we show that Brexit support had little effect on pandemic performance evaluations, that the pandemic served primarily as a competence shock and that the incumbent Conservative government lost popular support over its handling of the pandemic. The Conservatives were insulated from electoral losses by leader evaluations and by partisanship, but lost more of their newer voters from the 2019 general election. While the pandemic was exceptional, its effects have wider lessons for British politics in the post-Brexit era. The British case also provides insights into how competence shocks can cut through highly salient and otherwise dominant socio-cultural political divides.