Meta-Analysis on the Indirect Impacts of Highway Investment: Evidence from Japan

Abstract

This study performed a meta-analysis on the indirect effects of national highway projects in Japan to identify the project characteristics that contribute to the indirect effects, focusing on manufacturing transactions, business establishments, and employment. The dataset was developed from publicly available ex post evaluation reports of 243 national highway projects from 2013 to 2022. Univariate and multivariate binary probit models were estimated with the empirical dataset. The results showed that the length of the highway had significantly positive associations with all types of indirect effects, suggesting that longer highways enhanced economic activities in the highway vicinities. They also indicated that improved access to seaports and increased cargo weight limits also had positive associations with manufacturing transactions, whereas improved access to central cities had a weak positive association with employment. The formation of ring roads was also associated with increased employment, suggesting that businesses such as logistics facilities and warehouses prioritized proximity to cities. Finally, policy implications are presented in this study, for example, highway planning with improved accessibility covering both logistics and commuting could enhance the indirect effects of highway investments.