Forecasting CO2 emissions of fuel vehicles for an ecological world using ensemble learning, machine learning, and deep learning models

Abstract

Background The continuous increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel vehicles generates a greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, which has a negative impact on global warming and climate change and raises serious concerns about environmental sustainability. Therefore, research on estimating and reducing vehicle CO2 emissions is crucial in promoting environmental sustainability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. Methods This study performed a comparative regression analysis using 18 different regression algorithms based on machine learning, ensemble learning, and deep learning paradigms to evaluate and predict CO2 emissions from fuel vehicles. The performance of each algorithm was evaluated using metrics including R2, Adjusted R2, root mean square error (RMSE), and runtime. Results The findings revealed that ensemble learning methods have higher prediction accuracy and lower error rates. Ensemble learning algorithms that included Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Random Forest, and Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM) demonstrated high R2 and low RMSE values. As a result, these ensemble learning-based algorithms were discovered to be the most effective methods of predicting CO2 emissions. Although deep learning models with complex structures, such as the convolutional neural network (CNN), deep neural network (DNN) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), achieved high R2 values, it was discovered that they take longer to train and require more computational resources. The methodology and findings of our research provide a number of important implications for the different stakeholders striving for environmental sustainability and an ecological world.