Modeling the Magnetic Vectors of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections at Different Heliocentric Distances with INFROS

Abstract

The INterplanetary Flux ROpe Simulator (INFROS) is an observationally constrained analytical model dedicated to forecasting the strength of the southward component (Bz) of the magnetic field embedded in interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). In this work, we validate the model for six ICMEs sequentially observed by two radially aligned spacecraft positioned at different heliocentric distances. The six selected ICMEs in this study comprise cases associated with isolated coronal mass ejection (CME) evolution as well as those interacting with high-speed streams (HSSs) and high-density streams (HDSs). For the isolated CMEs, our results show that the model outputs at both spacecraft are in good agreement with in situ observations. However, for most of the interacting events, the model correctly captures the CME evolution only at the inner spacecraft. Due to the interaction with HSSs and HDSs, which in most cases occurred at heliocentric distances beyond the inner spacecraft, the ICME evolution no longer remains self-similar. Consequently, the model underestimates the field strength at the outer spacecraft. Our findings indicate that constraining the INFROS model with inner-spacecraft observations significantly enhances the prediction accuracy at the outer spacecraft for the three events undergoing self-similar expansion, achieving a 90% correlation between observed and predicted Bz profiles. This work also presents a quantitative estimation of the ICME magnetic field enhancement due to interaction which may lead to severe space weather. We conclude that the assumption of self-similar expansion provides a lower limit to the magnetic field strength estimated at any heliocentric distance, based on the remote-sensing observations.