Predicting Hydrological Drought Conditions of Boryeong Dam Inflow Using Climate Variability in South Korea

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI:10.1007/s12205-024-0160-2

Seonhui Noh, Micah Lourdes Felix, Seungchan Oh, Kwansue Jung

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Abstract

When a hydrological drought occurs due to a decrease in water storage, there is no choice but to supply limited water. Because this has a devastating impact on the community, it is necessary to identify causes and make predictions for emergency planning. The state of change in dam inflow can be used to confirm hydrological drought conditions using the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and meteorological drought and climate variability are used to identify causal relationships. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) models are developed to predict accumulated hydrological drought for 6, 12, and 24 months in the Boryeong Dam basin, and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) exceeded 0.4, satisfying the suitability criteria. The estimation ability is highest when predicting a 12-month annual drought, and reliability can be further increased by reflecting some climate fluctuations in a non-linear form. The droughts of 6 month and 24 month cumulative scales are significantly influenced by the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) extending from the eastern North Pacific to the North Atlantic and by the Nino 3.4 region in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the drought conditions of the inflow volume to the Boryeong Dam will worsen with increasing sea surface temperatures in both regions.

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利用气候变异性预测韩国宝岭大坝下泄流量的水文干旱状况

当蓄水量减少导致水文干旱时，别无选择，只能有限供水。由于这会对社区造成破坏性影响，因此有必要查明原因并进行预测，以便制定应急计划。可利用标准化径流指数 (SRI) 来确认水文干旱状况，并利用气象干旱和气候多变性来确定因果关系。建立了多元线性回归 (MLR) 模型和广义加性模型 (GAM) 模型来预测宝岭坝流域 6、12 和 24 个月的累积水文干旱，纳什-苏特克利夫模型效率系数 (NSE) 超过 0.4，满足适宜性标准。在预测 12 个月的年度干旱时，估算能力最高，通过以非线性形式反映某些气候波动，可靠性可进一步提高。6 个月和 24 个月累积尺度的干旱受到从北太平洋东部延伸到北大西洋的西半球暖池（WHWP）和热带太平洋尼诺 3.4 区域的显著影响。此外，随着这两个区域海面温度的上升，预计宝岭大坝入流水量的干旱状况将进一步恶化。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.

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