Population shrinkage and its influence on housing prices: A mediation perspective based on commercial amenities

Abstract

The effects of population shrinkage have become a new topic of concern. Existing research has explored the effects of population shrinkage on housing prices within specific cities, yet due to scale variations, the effects of population shrinkage on housing prices may exhibit uncertainty, are conclusions drawn at the micro level applicable to the macro level? Currently, there is limited exploration of the collective effects of micro mechanisms of population shrinkage on housing prices. In this paper, we outline the effects of population shrinkage on housing prices at both macro and micro levels. Subsequently, we propose to explore the general effects of population shrinkage on housing prices based on commercial amenities. Specifically, we analyze the spatial patterns and characteristics of population shrinkage and housing prices in 1235 Chinese shrinking counties. Furthermore, using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), we examine how commercial amenities mediate the relationship between population shrinkage and housing prices. This study contributes theoretically and empirically to understanding the impact of population shrinkage on housing prices, while also holds practical significance for regulating the effects of population shrinkage and stabilizing the value of real estate markets from the perspective of commercial amenities.