Modeling carbon dioxide emissions reduction

Abstract

The paper proposes a new scientific approach to modeling carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in individual countries, based on the tools of Kohonen self-organizing maps and the provisions of economic theory. This work is based on conducted a comprehensive analysis of wide set of indicators influencing carbon dioxide emissions and decarbonization processes in 40 selected countries for 10 years time span from 2013 till 2022. During clustering these nations using self-organizing maps, 14 key indicators were chosen that cover economic and demographic growth, energy consumption, CO₂ emission data, and includes trade of energy recourses for wider analysis and identification of countries with similar decarbonization potential, economic development and trade energy recourses possibilities. This approach exposed distinct clusters of nations with varying decarbonization capabilities and tracked the progress of analyzed countries in terms of CO₂ emission changes in dynamic.

The analysis of clustering was focused on identification leaders and followers in decarbonization activities. The leaders cluster includes Sweden, Norway, New Zealand and other countries exhibited leadership in developing a climate-resilient economy among 40 countries. Hence, all countries positioned closer to the leader cluster on the map demonstrated higher efficiency in their decarbonization pathways. Consequently, these properties of Kohonen maps provide a foundation for formulating general recommendations to achieve an efficient and effective low-carbon economy for followers including Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other energy intensive countries.

Distinct countries decarbonization profiles resulting from clustering were used to develop practical recommendations towards estimating and establishing targeted CO₂ emission levels for analyzed countries, conducting continued promoting renewable energy utilization, enhancing cross-border energy trade, diversifying energy portfolios, etc. Also, the proposed methodology can be utilized to project future emissions trends for each country based on cluster-specific models and facilitate policy decisions making process related to mitigating carbon emissions.