Probabilistic time estimation of tunnels constructed with multiple headings

Abstract

Transport infrastructure projects frequently encounter challenges such as schedule delays and cost overruns, leading to substantial misallocation of public or private resources. These issues are often exacerbated by uncertainties in time and cost estimation outcomes. To address this, various models have been developed in recent years to enable probabilistic estimation for tunneling projects, considering uncertainties. However, the impact of uncertainties on the critical path and its implications on time and cost estimations have not been discussed explicitly and in detail for network underground structures encompassing multiple construction paths. In this study, we update the KTH time and cost estimation model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This updated model enables simultaneous round-by-round construction simulation across all paths in network underground structures. Consequently, it accommodates uncertainty in the critical path and its influence on time estimation outcomes. Additionally, the updated model introduces an innovative technique to model geological uncertainties along tunnel routes, thereby contributing to the field’s diversity. Practical application of the updated model is showcased using the Uri Hearace tunnel as an illustrative example. The paper also delves into the practical implications of the findings from a decision-maker’s standpoint, as well as discussing the model’s limitations.