A Data-Driven Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on a Tropical Mangrove in India

Abstract

As a potential carbon sink, mangroves play an important role in climate mitigation. India houses several major global mangrove patches, which remain vulnerable to climate change. The ecosystem-atmosphere CO₂ exchange is most accurately measured by the eddy covariance method, whereas satellites provide the biophysical parameters for a wider area. In the present study, the Sentinel-2 satellite data is used to map the land cover types in the Pichavaram mangrove forest and identify two major dominant species (Rhizophora spp. and Avicennia marina), which indicated more than 95% classification accuracy. We used 2 years (2017 and 2018) of in situ gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) measurements and rectified the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP and LAI products from 2010 to 2018. The modified MODIS GPP and LAI products were used to develop machine learning models, that is, Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to study the climate influence on mangrove productivity. The RF model (R² = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.2) outperformed the XGBoost model (R² = 0.75 and RMSE = 0.26) and was used to project the impact of climate change on the mangrove GPP for two extreme climate change scenarios, namely SSP1-1.26 and SSP5-8.5. The GPP increases and decreases in future during wet and dry periods, respectively. Overall, the projected GPP indicated a reduction of 3.73%–20.3% from 2050 to 2060 and of 4.82%–28.15% from 2090 to 2100, compared to its current average (from 2010 to 2018).