Robust Hydropower Planning Balances Energy Generation, Carbon Emissions and Sediment Connectivity in the Mekong River Basin

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI:10.1029/2023EF003647
M. Tangi, R. Schmitt, R. Almeida, S. Bossi, A. Flecker, F. Sala, A. Castelletti
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Abstract

We present a framework for strategic dam planning under uncertainty, which includes GHG emissions mitigation as a novel objective. We focus on the Mekong River Basin, a fast-developing region heavily relying on river-derived ecosystem services. We employ a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to identify strategic dam portfolios for different hydropower expansion targets, using process-related and statistical models to derive indicators of sediment supply disruption and GHG emissions. We introduce a robust optimization approach that explores variations in optimal portfolio compositions for more than 5,000 state-of-the-world configurations, regarding sediment origins and trapping and GHG emissions. Thus, we can rank dam projects' attractiveness based on their frequency of inclusion in optimal portfolios and explore how uncertainty affects these rankings. Our results suggest that developing dams in the upper Mekong would be a more robust option for near-term development than, for example, the lower Mekong and its tributaries, for both environmental and energy objectives. Our work presents a novel approach to better understand the basin-scale cumulative impacts of dam development in high-uncertainty, data-scarce contexts like the Mekong Basin.

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稳健的水电规划可平衡湄公河流域的发电量、碳排放量和泥沙连通性
我们提出了一个不确定条件下的大坝战略规划框架,其中包括温室气体减排这一新颖目标。我们将重点放在湄公河流域,这是一个严重依赖河流生态系统服务的快速发展地区。我们采用多目标进化算法来确定不同水电扩张目标的战略大坝组合,并利用过程相关模型和统计模型得出泥沙供应中断和温室气体排放指标。我们引入了一种稳健的优化方法,针对泥沙来源、泥沙截留和温室气体排放等方面,探索 5,000 多种最新配置的最佳组合构成的变化。因此,我们可以根据大坝项目被纳入最优组合的频率对其吸引力进行排序,并探讨不确定性如何影响这些排序。我们的研究结果表明,与湄公河下游及其支流等地相比,在湄公河上游开发大坝对于近期开发而言是一个更稳健的选择,这既符合环境目标,也符合能源目标。我们的研究提出了一种新颖的方法,可以更好地了解在湄公河流域等高不确定性、数据稀缺的情况下大坝开发在流域范围内的累积影响。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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