Seismic fragility analysis of girder bridges under mainshock-aftershock sequences based on input-output hidden Markov model

IF 4.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI:10.1002/eqe.4182
Libo Chen, Liangpeng Chen, Jianhong Zhou
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Abstract

Current seismic design codes for bridge structures do not account for the influence of aftershock sequences, which, to some extent, overestimate the seismic performance for bridges subjected to mainshock-aftershock (MS-AS) scenarios. To address the great need for ground motion sequences tailored to specific research sites for fragility analysis, this study proposes a method for generating artificial MS-AS ground motion sequences based on the evolutional bimodal Kanai–Tajimi model and the Epidemic–Type Aftershock Sequence model. We establish a framework for MS-AS fragility analysis using an input–output Hidden Markov Model (IOHMM), where the damage states (DS) of bridge piers are considered unobservable and are inferred statistically through damage indices in an unsupervised manner. Model parameters are trained using intensity measure (IM) sequences and damage index (DI) sequences. Fragility curves for both the mainshock and state-dependent aftershocks considering multiple aftershocks are formulated based on the initial state probability and state transition probabilities of the proposed IOHMM. The fragility analysis results reveal that as the initial seismic damage level increases, the probability of aftershocks causing higher damage levels in the structure also increases, highlighting the significant impact of aftershocks on structural damage increments. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model to a bivariate seismic intensity measure and develop fragility surfaces. The proposed framework provides a novel approach and insights for tackling seismic fragility under multiple aftershocks.

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基于输入输出隐马尔可夫模型的主震-余震序列下梁桥的地震脆性分析
目前的桥梁结构抗震设计规范没有考虑余震序列的影响,在一定程度上高估了主震-余震(MS-AS)情况下桥梁的抗震性能。为了满足脆性分析对特定研究地点地震动序列的巨大需求,本研究提出了一种基于演化双峰 Kanai-Tajimi 模型和流行型余震序列模型生成人工 MS-AS 地震动序列的方法。我们利用输入输出隐马尔可夫模型(IOHMM)建立了 MS-AS 脆性分析框架,其中桥墩的破坏状态(DS)被认为是不可观测的,并通过无监督方式的破坏指数进行统计推断。模型参数通过强度测量(IM)序列和损伤指数(DI)序列进行训练。根据所提出的 IOHMM 的初始状态概率和状态转换概率,制定了考虑到多次余震的主震和与状态相关的余震的脆性曲线。脆性分析结果表明,随着初始地震破坏程度的增加,余震对结构造成更高破坏程度的概率也随之增加,这凸显了余震对结构破坏增量的重要影响。此外,我们还将提出的模型扩展到双变量地震烈度测量,并开发了脆性面。所提出的框架为解决多重余震下的地震脆性问题提供了一种新的方法和见解。
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来源期刊
Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics
Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics 工程技术-工程:地质
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
13.30%
发文量
180
审稿时长
4.8 months
期刊介绍: Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics provides a forum for the publication of papers on several aspects of engineering related to earthquakes. The problems in this field, and their solutions, are international in character and require knowledge of several traditional disciplines; the Journal will reflect this. Papers that may be relevant but do not emphasize earthquake engineering and related structural dynamics are not suitable for the Journal. Relevant topics include the following: ground motions for analysis and design geotechnical earthquake engineering probabilistic and deterministic methods of dynamic analysis experimental behaviour of structures seismic protective systems system identification risk assessment seismic code requirements methods for earthquake-resistant design and retrofit of structures.
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