Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004563
Yanlan Liu, Jennifer A. Holm, Charles D. Koven, Verity G. Salmon, Alistair Rogers, Margaret S. Torn
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Abstract

Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM-FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold-induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

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功能性状的不确定性导致预测的高纬度植被组成和生产力出现巨大差异
在气候迅速变暖的情况下,预计北部高纬度地区的植被分布和组成将发生变化,这将对生态系统功能产生调节作用,但预测工作仍具有挑战性。植被变化源于气候变暖等长期气候趋势与新陈代谢、生长、竞争和死亡等瞬时人口统计过程的相互作用。大多数预测模型忽视了由植物性状控制的人口动态的作用。在此,我们利用 E3SM 陆地模型和功能组装陆地模拟器(ELM-FATES),模拟了阿拉斯加库加罗克山坡(Kougarok Hillslope)在历史和未来气候条件下的植被动态。为了评估植物性状的作用,我们用 5265 种性状配置对模型进行了参数化,这些性状配置代表了不同的生理和人口策略。结果表明,当前模型的生物量、组成和生产力对控制光合能力、碳分配、异构和物候的性状最为敏感。在所有性状配置中,有 5%重现了 2016 年测量的原地生物量和植物功能类型(PFT)组成,与这两种观测到的生态系统状态没有区别。值得注意的是,在未来气候条件下,这些相同的性状配置会产生不同的生物量、组成和生产力,其中性状的不确定性是气候变化变化的两倍。预测生产力的变化源于新气候条件下新出现的 PFT 构成,主要由控制冷引起的死亡率、招募和异化作用的性状所解释。我们的研究结果凸显了人口动态及其与气候变化的相互作用在影响北极植被变化方面的重要性和不确定性。明确考虑植被的人口动态和更好地限制关键性状可能会有利于改进模型预测。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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