Future Drought-Induced Tree Mortality Risk in Amazon Rainforest

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI:10.1029/2023EF003740
Yitong Yao, Philippe Ciais, Emilie Joetzjer, Songbai Hong, Wei Li, Lei Zhu, Nicolas Viovy
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Abstract

The future evolution of the Amazon rainforest remains uncertain not only due to uncertain climate projections, but also owing to the intricate balance between tree growth and mortality. Many Earth System Models inadequately represent forest demography processes, especially drought-induced tree mortality. In this study, we used ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA, a land surface model featuring a mechanistic hydraulic architecture, a tree mortality sub-model linked to a critical loss of stem conductance and a forest demography module for simulating regrowth. The model was forced by bias-corrected climate forcing data from the ISIMIP-2 program, considering two scenarios and four different climate models to project biomass changes in the Amazon rainforest until 2100. These climate models display diverse patterns of climate change across the Amazon region. The simulation conducted with the HadGEM climate model reveals the most significant drying trend, suggesting that the Guiana Shield and East-central Amazon are approaching a tipping point. These two regions are projected to transition from carbon sinks to carbon sources by the mid-21st century, with the Brazilian Shield following suit around 2060. This transition is attributed to heightened drought-induced carbon loss in the future. This study sheds light on uncertainties in the future carbon sink in the Amazon forests, through a well-calibrated model that incorporates tree mortality triggered by hydraulic damage and the subsequent recovery of drought-affected forests through demographic processes.

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亚马逊雨林未来干旱导致树木死亡的风险
亚马逊热带雨林未来的演变仍然不确定,这不仅是由于气候预测不确定,还由于树木生长和死亡之间错综复杂的平衡。许多地球系统模型都没有充分反映森林人口变化过程,尤其是干旱导致的树木死亡。在这项研究中,我们使用了 ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA 陆面模型,该模型具有机理水力结构、与茎杆传导临界损失相关的树木死亡子模型以及模拟再生的森林人口统计模块。该模型由 ISIMIP-2 计划中经过偏差校正的气候强迫数据驱动,考虑了两种情况和四种不同的气候模型,以预测 2100 年前亚马逊雨林的生物量变化。这些气候模型显示了亚马逊地区不同的气候变化模式。利用 HadGEM 气候模型进行的模拟显示了最显著的干燥趋势,表明圭亚那地盾和亚马逊中东部地区正在接近临界点。预计到 21 世纪中叶,这两个地区将从碳汇过渡到碳源,巴西地盾将在 2060 年左右跟进。这种转变归因于未来干旱导致的碳损失增加。本研究通过一个校准良好的模型,将水力破坏引发的树木死亡和随后受干旱影响的森林通过人口过程恢复纳入模型,揭示了亚马逊森林未来碳汇的不确定性。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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