Persistent Extreme Surface Solar Radiation and Its Implications on Solar Photovoltaics

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004266
G. Senger, B. Chtirkova, D. Folini, J. Wohland, M. Wild
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Abstract

Climatic extreme events are important because they can strongly impact humans, infrastructure, and biodiversity and will be affected by a changing climate. Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) is the primary energy source for solar photovoltaics (PV), which will be indispensable in future zero-emissions energy systems. Despite their pivotal role, extreme events in SSR remain under-documented. We provide a starting point in extreme SSR analysis by focusing on events caused by internal variability alone and therefore building a baseline for future extreme SSR research. We analyze extreme SSR events using daily-mean data from the pre-industrial control simulations (piControl) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6. We investigate their role in PV energy generation using the Global Solar Energy Estimator with the intent of strengthening the energy system's resilience. Our results show a pronounced asymmetry between consecutive days with extremely high and extremely low solar radiation over land, the former occurring more frequently than the latter. Moreover, our results call for detailed PV generation modeling that includes panel geometry. Simple models based on linear SSR representations prove insufficient due to pronounced seasonal variations and strong non-linear SSR dependency of high extremes. Our results demonstrate how climate model results can be leveraged to understand persistent radiation extremes that are relevant for future energy systems.

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持续极端地表太阳辐射及其对太阳能光伏技术的影响
气候极端事件非常重要,因为它们会对人类、基础设施和生物多样性造成严重影响,并将受到气候变化的影响。地表太阳辐射(SSR)是太阳能光伏发电(PV)的主要能源,在未来的零排放能源系统中不可或缺。尽管其作用举足轻重,但地表太阳辐射极端事件的记录仍然不足。我们通过关注仅由内部变率引起的事件,为极端 SSR 分析提供了一个起点,从而为未来的极端 SSR 研究建立了一个基线。我们利用耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段的工业化前控制模拟(piControl)中的日均值数据分析了极端 SSR 事件。我们利用全球太阳能估算器研究了它们在光伏发电中的作用,旨在加强能源系统的恢复能力。我们的研究结果表明,陆地上太阳辐射极高和极低的连续天数之间存在明显的不对称性,前者出现的频率高于后者。此外,我们的结果还要求建立详细的光伏发电模型,其中包括电池板的几何形状。基于线性 SSR 表示的简单模型被证明是不够的,因为存在明显的季节性变化和高极端太阳辐射的强烈非线性 SSR 依赖性。我们的研究结果展示了如何利用气候模型结果来了解与未来能源系统相关的持续极端辐射。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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