The Future Needs of External Beam Radiotherapy in Portugal Until 2040.

Abstract

Aims: External beam radiotherapy (EBRT) is essential to offer an effective cancer treatment, but it needs to be accessible, well-timed, and high-quality. There is a global lack of radiotherapy infrastructure and investment that compromises the cancer outcomes. The authors aim to quantify the future needs of EBRT until 2040 to cover the future demand.

Materials and methods: Based on the Global Cancer Observatory estimate for new cancer cases in Portugal for 2040 it was calculated the optimal number of EBRT courses. The OUP is the proportion of new cancer cases that should receive EBRT at least once. In line with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) DIrectory of RAdiotherapy Centres and European SocieTy for Radiotherapy and Oncology - Health Economics in Radiation Oncology guidelines, we estimated the number of EBRT machines / Megavoltage (MV) units needed. Also, the authors followed the IAEA staffing guidelines.

Results: The calculated median increase in the optimal number of EBRT courses for the year 2040 was found to be 18% when compared to the requirements in 2020. The projected number of optimal EBRT courses for 2040 was estimated to be approximately 34.000. Consequently, a range of 18 to 30 new EBRT machines/ MV units will need to be installed to adequately address the growing demand. To meet this demand, it is anticipated that a total of 28 to 46 radiation oncologists, 22 to 36 medical physicists, and 61 to 102 radiation therapists will be required.

Conclusion: The deficit of EBRT machines / MV units in Portugal will require a change in the cancer related - policies and an investment to offer full access to EBRT treatments.