The global macroeconomic burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias: estimates and projections for 152 countries or territories.

IF 19.9 1区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Lancet Global Health Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00264-X

Simiao Chen, Zhong Cao, Arindam Nandi, Nathaniel Counts, Lirui Jiao, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, Benjamin Seligman, Daniel Tortorice, Daniel Vigo, Chen Wang, David E Bloom

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Abstract

Background: Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADODs) severely threaten the wellbeing of older people, their families, and communities, especially with projected exponential growth. Understanding the macroeconomic implications of ADODs for policy making is essential but under-researched.

Methods: We used a health-augmented macroeconomic model to calculate the macroeconomic burden of ADODs for 152 countries or territories, accounting for: the effect on labour supply of reduced working hours of informal caregivers; the effect on labour supply of ADODs-related mortality and morbidity; age-sex-specific differences in education, work experience, labour market participations, and informal caregivers; and treatment and formal care costs diverting from savings and investments.

Findings: ADODs will cost the world economy 14 513 billion international dollars (INT$, measured in the base year 2020; 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12 106-17 778) from 2020 to 2050, equivalent to 0·421% (95% UI 0·351-0·515) of annual global GDP. Japan incurs the largest annual GDP loss at 1·463% (1·225-1·790). China (INT$2961 billion [2507-3564]), the USA (INT$2331 billion [1989-2829]), and Japan (INT$1758 billion [1471-2150]) face the largest absolute economic burdens. The economic burden of informal care ranges from 60·97% in high-income countries to 85·45% in lower-middle-income countries, and treatment and formal care costs range from 10·50% in lower-middle-income countries to 30·80% in high-income countries.

Interpretation: The macroeconomic burden of ADODs is substantial and unequally distributed across countries and regions. Global efforts to reduce the burden, especially with regard to informal care, are urgently needed.

Funding: National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; Chinese Academy of Engineering; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative through Data for Decisions.

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阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症的全球宏观经济负担：对 152 个国家或地区的估计和预测。

背景：阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症（ADODs）严重威胁着老年人、他们的家庭和社区的福祉，特别是随着预计的指数增长。了解老年痴呆症对宏观经济的影响对制定政策至关重要，但这方面的研究却不足：我们使用了一个健康增强型宏观经济模型，计算了152个国家或地区的ADODs宏观经济负担，并考虑了以下因素：非正规护理人员工作时间减少对劳动力供应的影响；与ADODs相关的死亡率和发病率对劳动力供应的影响；教育、工作经验、劳动力市场参与度和非正规护理人员方面的年龄性别差异；以及从储蓄和投资中转移的治疗和正规护理成本：从 2020 年到 2050 年，ADOD 将使世界经济损失 145,130 亿美元（INT$，以 2020 年为基准年；95% 不确定区间 [UI] 12 106-17 778），相当于全球年度 GDP 的 0-421%（95% UI 0-351-0-515）。日本的年 GDP 损失最大，为 1-463%（1-225-1-790）。中国（2,961 亿美元 [2,507-3564]）、美国（2,331 亿美元 [1989-2829] ）和日本（1,758 亿美元 [1471-2150]）面临的绝对经济负担最大。非正规护理的经济负担从高收入国家的 60-97% 到中低收入国家的 85-45%不等，治疗和正规护理成本从中低收入国家的 10-50% 到高收入国家的 30-80%不等：ADODs造成的宏观经济负担是巨大的，而且在各国和各地区的分布并不均衡。全球亟需努力减轻这一负担，尤其是在非正规护理方面：资助机构：美国国立卫生研究院国家老龄化研究所、中国工程院、中国医学科学院、比尔及梅琳达-盖茨基金会、达沃斯阿尔茨海默氏症决策数据合作组织。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Lancet Global Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

44.10

自引率

1.20%

发文量

763

审稿时长

10 weeks

期刊介绍： The Lancet Global Health is an online publication that releases monthly open access (subscription-free) issues.Each issue includes original research, commentary, and correspondence.In addition to this, the publication also provides regular blog posts. The main focus of The Lancet Global Health is on disadvantaged populations, which can include both entire economic regions and marginalized groups within prosperous nations.The publication prefers to cover topics related to reproductive, maternal, neonatal, child, and adolescent health; infectious diseases (including neglected tropical diseases); non-communicable diseases; mental health; the global health workforce; health systems; surgery; and health policy.