Paving initial forecasting COVID-19 spread capabilities by nonexperts: A case study.

Abstract

Objective: The COVID-19 outbreak compelled countries to take swift actions across various domains amidst substantial uncertainties. In Israel, significant COVID-19-related efforts were assigned to the Israeli Home Front Command (HFC). HFC faced the challenge of anticipating adequate resources to efficiently and timely manage its numerous assignments despite the absence of a COVID-19 spread forecast. This paper describes the initiative of a group of motivated, though nonexpert, people to provide the needed COVID-19 rate of spread of the epidemic forecasts.

Methods: To address this challenge, the Planning Chamber, reporting to the HFC Medical Commander, undertook the task of mapping HFC healthcare challenges and resource requirements. The nonexpert team continuously collected public COVID-19-related data published by the Israeli Ministry of Health (MoH) of verified cases, light cases, mild cases, serious condition cases, life-support cases, and deaths, and despite lacking expertise in statistics and healthcare and having no sophisticated statistical packages, generated forecasts using Microsoft^® Excel.

Results: The analysis methods and applications successfully demonstrated the desired outcome of the lockdown by showing a transition from exponential to polynomial growth in the spread of the virus. These forecasting activities enabled decision-makers to manage resources effectively, supporting the HFC's operations during the pandemic.

Conclusions: Nonexpert forecasting may become a necessity and be beneficial, and similar analysis efforts can be easily replicated in future events. However, they are inherently short-lived and should persist only until knowledge centers can bridge the expertise gap. It is crucial to identify major events, such as lockdowns, during forecasting due to their potential impact on spread rates. Despite the expertise gap, the Planning Chamber's approach provided valuable resource management insights for HFC's COVID-19 response.