Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Ecosphere Pub Date : 2024-08-18 DOI:10.1002/ecs2.4965
Baoliang Chang, Chen Huang, Bingming Chen, Ziwen Wang, Xingyuan He, Wei Chen, Yanqing Huang, Yue Zhang, Shuai Yu
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Abstract

Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision-makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for T. cuspidata based on extant data of T. cuspidata distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing T. cuspidata distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment.

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基于集合模型预测中国东北紫杉的潜在分布
气候变化将在未来对物种分布产生重大影响,作为濒危物种的簕杜鹃也不例外。预测 T. cuspidata 的潜在分布对于决策者制定保护政策和明确实施保护措施至关重要。在本研究中,我们根据中国东北地区现存的蝶形花分布数据,采用组合模型预测了蝶形花的潜在适宜栖息地。研究结果表明,平均昼伏夜出(bio2)和等温线(bio3)是影响栉水母分布的主要因素。在未来气候情景下,2070年代只有SSP126情景下的适宜栖息地面积有所增加,其他情景下的适宜栖息地面积均有所减少。在所有气候情景下,适宜栖息地的中心点最终都呈现出向北移动的趋势。适宜栖息地减少主要发生在延边朝鲜族自治州、白山市和通化市。总之,本研究强调了气候变化导致栖息地减少的预测。建议战略性地建立自然保护区,并实施旨在补充种群数量的措施。
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来源期刊
Ecosphere
Ecosphere ECOLOGY-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
378
审稿时长
15 weeks
期刊介绍: The scope of Ecosphere is as broad as the science of ecology itself. The journal welcomes submissions from all sub-disciplines of ecological science, as well as interdisciplinary studies relating to ecology. The journal''s goal is to provide a rapid-publication, online-only, open-access alternative to ESA''s other journals, while maintaining the rigorous standards of peer review for which ESA publications are renowned.
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