{"title":"Identification of Climatic Refuges of Mouflon Under Future Climate in Central Iranian Protected Areas","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.rama.2024.06.014","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Habitat destruction is one of the biggest threats to wildlife populations. Climate change may exacerbate the impacts of habitat destruction and alter the distribution of species. We projected the impact of climate change on the distribution of mouflon (<em>Ovis gmelini</em>) in central Iran in 2055 and 2085, evaluated the efficiency of protected areas for protecting this species, and identified potential climatic refugia for this species. We analyzed presence data of mouflon according to climate and topographic factors and generated an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on nine species distribution models. In the modeling process, the most important uncorrelated variables were chosen. Using circuit theory, potential connectivity between habitat patches was estimated. To assess the impact of climate change on the study area in 2055 and 2085, two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5, were used based on the global circulation models. Based on the climatic suitability model, approximately 34.11% of protected areas were recognized as suitable habitats for mouflon. In the forecasted climate conditions, approximately 3.30% of suitable habitats would become unsuitable and approximately 9.36% of the current protected areas will lose their efficiency in supporting this species. In addition, climate change may reduce habitat connectivity for mouflon in the future. We conclude that the development of the network of protected areas and attention to habitat connectivity are necessary for the future migration and survival of this species; therefore, conservation planning should consider the future potential of protected/unprotected areas in supporting mouflon populations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49634,"journal":{"name":"Rangeland Ecology & Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Rangeland Ecology & Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1550742424001015","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Habitat destruction is one of the biggest threats to wildlife populations. Climate change may exacerbate the impacts of habitat destruction and alter the distribution of species. We projected the impact of climate change on the distribution of mouflon (Ovis gmelini) in central Iran in 2055 and 2085, evaluated the efficiency of protected areas for protecting this species, and identified potential climatic refugia for this species. We analyzed presence data of mouflon according to climate and topographic factors and generated an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on nine species distribution models. In the modeling process, the most important uncorrelated variables were chosen. Using circuit theory, potential connectivity between habitat patches was estimated. To assess the impact of climate change on the study area in 2055 and 2085, two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5, were used based on the global circulation models. Based on the climatic suitability model, approximately 34.11% of protected areas were recognized as suitable habitats for mouflon. In the forecasted climate conditions, approximately 3.30% of suitable habitats would become unsuitable and approximately 9.36% of the current protected areas will lose their efficiency in supporting this species. In addition, climate change may reduce habitat connectivity for mouflon in the future. We conclude that the development of the network of protected areas and attention to habitat connectivity are necessary for the future migration and survival of this species; therefore, conservation planning should consider the future potential of protected/unprotected areas in supporting mouflon populations.
期刊介绍:
Rangeland Ecology & Management publishes all topics-including ecology, management, socioeconomic and policy-pertaining to global rangelands. The journal''s mission is to inform academics, ecosystem managers and policy makers of science-based information to promote sound rangeland stewardship. Author submissions are published in five manuscript categories: original research papers, high-profile forum topics, concept syntheses, as well as research and technical notes.
Rangelands represent approximately 50% of the Earth''s land area and provision multiple ecosystem services for large human populations. This expansive and diverse land area functions as coupled human-ecological systems. Knowledge of both social and biophysical system components and their interactions represent the foundation for informed rangeland stewardship. Rangeland Ecology & Management uniquely integrates information from multiple system components to address current and pending challenges confronting global rangelands.