Identification of Climatic Refuges of Mouflon Under Future Climate in Central Iranian Protected Areas

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Rangeland Ecology & Management Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI:10.1016/j.rama.2024.06.014
Azita Rezvani, Sima Fakheran, Mahmoud-Reza Hemami
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Abstract

Habitat destruction is one of the biggest threats to wildlife populations. Climate change may exacerbate the impacts of habitat destruction and alter the distribution of species. We projected the impact of climate change on the distribution of mouflon (Ovis gmelini) in central Iran in 2055 and 2085, evaluated the efficiency of protected areas for protecting this species, and identified potential climatic refugia for this species. We analyzed presence data of mouflon according to climate and topographic factors and generated an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on nine species distribution models. In the modeling process, the most important uncorrelated variables were chosen. Using circuit theory, potential connectivity between habitat patches was estimated. To assess the impact of climate change on the study area in 2055 and 2085, two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5, were used based on the global circulation models. Based on the climatic suitability model, approximately 34.11% of protected areas were recognized as suitable habitats for mouflon. In the forecasted climate conditions, approximately 3.30% of suitable habitats would become unsuitable and approximately 9.36% of the current protected areas will lose their efficiency in supporting this species. In addition, climate change may reduce habitat connectivity for mouflon in the future. We conclude that the development of the network of protected areas and attention to habitat connectivity are necessary for the future migration and survival of this species; therefore, conservation planning should consider the future potential of protected/unprotected areas in supporting mouflon populations.

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伊朗中部保护区未来气候条件下骡子的气候庇护所识别
栖息地遭到破坏是野生动物种群面临的最大威胁之一。气候变化可能会加剧栖息地破坏的影响,并改变物种的分布。我们预测了 2055 年和 2085 年气候变化对伊朗中部驼鹿(Ovis gmelini)分布的影响,评估了保护区保护该物种的效率,并确定了该物种潜在的气候庇护所。我们根据气候和地形因素分析了褐马牛的存在数据,并根据九个物种分布模型生成了栖息地适宜性的集合模型。在建模过程中,我们选择了最重要的不相关变量。利用电路理论估算了栖息地斑块之间的潜在连通性。为了评估气候变化在 2055 年和 2085 年对研究区域的影响,根据全球环流模型采用了两种共同的社会经济路径(SSP),即 SSP 2.6 和 SSP 8.5。根据气候适宜性模型,约 34.11% 的保护区被认定为适合褐马牛栖息。在预测的气候条件下,约 3.30% 的适宜栖息地将变得不适宜,约 9.36% 的现有保护区将失去支持该物种的效率。此外,气候变化可能会降低未来褐马牛栖息地的连通性。我们的结论是,保护区网络的发展和对栖息地连通性的关注对于该物种未来的迁徙和生存是必要的;因此,保护规划应考虑保护区/非保护区在支持褐马牛种群方面的未来潜力。
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来源期刊
Rangeland Ecology & Management
Rangeland Ecology & Management 农林科学-环境科学
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
13.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Rangeland Ecology & Management publishes all topics-including ecology, management, socioeconomic and policy-pertaining to global rangelands. The journal''s mission is to inform academics, ecosystem managers and policy makers of science-based information to promote sound rangeland stewardship. Author submissions are published in five manuscript categories: original research papers, high-profile forum topics, concept syntheses, as well as research and technical notes. Rangelands represent approximately 50% of the Earth''s land area and provision multiple ecosystem services for large human populations. This expansive and diverse land area functions as coupled human-ecological systems. Knowledge of both social and biophysical system components and their interactions represent the foundation for informed rangeland stewardship. Rangeland Ecology & Management uniquely integrates information from multiple system components to address current and pending challenges confronting global rangelands.
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