Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge-Based Flood Risk Assessment Under Combined Scenarios of High Tides and Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004236
Ziying Zhou, Saini Yang, Fuyu Hu, Bingrui Chen, Xianwu Shi, Xiaoyan Liu
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Abstract

In the context of climate change, coastal flood risk is intensifying globally, particularly in China, where intricate coastlines and frequent tropical cyclones make storm surges a major concern. Despite local government's efforts to initiate coastal monitoring networks and qualitative risk guidelines, there remains a gap in detailed and efficient quantitative assessments for combinations of multiple sea-level components. To address this, we develop the Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge-based Flood Risk Assessment under Combined Scenarios (TCSoS-FRACS). This framework integrates impacts of storm surges, high tides, and sea-level rise using a hybrid of statistical and dynamic models to balance reliability and efficiency. By combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, it incorporates economic and demographic factors for a deeper understanding of risk composition. Applying TCSoS-FRACS to Hainan Island reveals that the combined effects of storm surges, high tides, and sea-level rise significantly amplify local coastal flood risk, increasing economic losses to 4.27–5.90 times and affected populations to 4.96–6.23 times. Additionally, transitioning from Fossil-fueled Development (SSP5-8.5) to Sustainability (SSP1-1.9) can reduce the risk increase by approximately half. The equivalence in flood hazard between current high tides and future sea level under a sustainable scenario boosts confidence in climate change adaptation efforts. However, coastal cities with low hazard but high exposure need heightened vigilance in flood defense, as future risk could escalate sharply. Our study provides new insights into coastal flood risk on Hainan Island and other regions with similar profiles, offering a transferable and efficient tool for disaster risk management and aiding in regional sustainable development.

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在高潮和海平面上升综合情景下基于热带气旋风暴潮的洪水风险评估:中国海南岛案例研究
在气候变化的背景下,全球沿海洪水风险正在加剧,特别是在中国,错综复杂的海岸线和频繁的热带气旋使风暴潮成为一个主要问题。尽管地方政府努力启动海岸监测网络并制定定性风险指南,但在对多种海平面成分组合进行详细、高效的定量评估方面仍存在差距。为此,我们开发了基于热带气旋风暴潮的综合情景下洪水风险评估(TCSoS-FRACS)。该框架综合了风暴潮、高潮和海平面上升的影响,采用了统计和动态混合模型,以平衡可靠性和效率。通过将危害、风险暴露和脆弱性结合起来,该框架还纳入了经济和人口因素,以加深对风险构成的理解。将 TCSoS-FRACS 应用于海南岛的结果表明,风暴潮、高潮和海平面上升的综合影响显著放大了当地的沿海洪水风险,使经济损失增加到 4.27-5.90 倍,受灾人口增加到 4.96-6.23 倍。此外,从化石燃料发展(SSP5-8.5)过渡到可持续发展(SSP1-1.9)可将风险增加降低约一半。在可持续发展情景下,目前的涨潮与未来海平面之间的洪水风险相等,这增强了人们对气候变化适应工作的信心。然而,由于未来的风险可能会急剧上升,因此低危害但高暴露的沿海城市需要在洪水防御方面提高警惕。我们的研究为了解海南岛及其他类似地区的沿海洪水风险提供了新的视角,为灾害风险管理和区域可持续发展提供了可借鉴的有效工具。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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