Unveiling the overlooked: Current and future distribution dynamics of kissing bugs and palm species linked to oral Chagas disease transmission

Abstract

Chagas disease, a neglected global health concern primarily transmitted through the bite and feces of kissing bugs, has garnered increasing attention due to recent outbreaks in northern Brazil, highlighting the role of oral transmission facilitated by the kissing bugs species Rhodnius robustus and Rhodnius pictipes. These vectors are associated with palm trees with large crowns, such as the maripa palm (Attalea maripa) and moriche palm (Mauritia flexuosa). In this study, we employ maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological niche models to analyze the spatial distribution of these vectors and palm species, predicting current and future climate suitability. Our models indicate broader potential habitats than documented occurrences, with high suitability in northern South America, southern Central America, central Africa, and southeast Asia. Projections suggest increased climate suitability by 2040, followed by a reduction by 2080. This study identifies present and future areas suitable for kissing bugs and palm tree species due to climate change, aiding in the design of prevention and management strategies.