Markov Model Decodes Cuttack's Landscape Shifts: Geospatial Insights Into Urban Metamorphosis

Abstract

Modeling the prediction of land use/land cover (LULC) change is necessary for sustainable management of natural resources and effective planning for proper urban development. The Markov chain model is the most commonly used prediction model for assessing LULC changes. This study aims to assess changes in LULC in Cuttack City from 1990 to 2020 and to predict LULC modification in 2050. For the analysis, Landsat satellite data were collected from the USGS website for 1990, 2005, and 2020. The satellite images were masked with our area of interest and classified using the maximum likelihood classifier tool in ArcGIS 10.2. The result of the multi-temporal classification shows that the built-up area percentage reached 45.927% in 1990 and 57.827% in 2020. Most areas of vegetation and water bodies were affected by this impromptu growth. Using the chi-square test, the results of the Markov model are validated, which shows no significant differences between the classified and simulated areas. This model can, therefore, be accepted for our prediction. Built-up growth has already achieved its peak in Cuttack City. There may be further growth in built-up areas in the city shortly. These findings draw the attention of urban planners and policymakers to the stress of urban sprawl and prompt them to take stringent action to deal with this pressing issue.