Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling.

IF 3.8 4区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-26 DOI:10.1007/s44197-024-00286-6
Carlo Delfin S Estadilla, Javier Mar, Oliver Ibarrondo, Nico Stollenwerk, Maíra Aguiar
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Abstract

COVID-19 vaccines have demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing severe symptoms and fatalities, although their effectiveness in preventing transmission varies depending on the population's age profile and the dominant variant. This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Basque Country region of Spain, which has the fourth highest proportion of elderly individuals worldwide. Using epidemiological data on hospitalizations, ICU admissions, fatalities, and vaccination coverage, we calibrated four versions of an ordinary differential equations model with varying assumptions on the age structure and transmission function. Counterfactual no-vaccine scenarios were simulated by setting the vaccination rate to zero while all other parameters were held constant. The initial vaccination rollout is estimated to have prevented 46,000 to 75,000 hospitalizations, 6,000 to 11,000 ICU admissions, and 15,000 to 24,000 deaths, reducing these outcomes by 73-86%. The most significant impact occurred during the third quarter of 2021, coinciding with the Delta variant's dominance and a vaccination rate exceeding 60%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination coverage had a more substantial effect on averted outcomes than vaccine efficacy. Overall, the vaccination campaign in the Basque Country significantly reduced severe COVID-19 outcomes, aligning with global estimates and demonstrating robustness across different modeling approaches.

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高 Covid-19 疫苗接种率对老龄人口的影响:利用反事实模型估算西班牙巴斯克地区避免的住院和死亡人数。
COVID-19 疫苗在减少严重症状和死亡方面具有显著疗效,但其预防传播的效果因人群的年龄结构和主要变异体而异。本研究评估了 COVID-19 疫苗接种活动在西班牙巴斯克地区的影响,该地区的老年人比例在全球排名第四。利用住院、重症监护室入院、死亡和疫苗接种覆盖率等流行病学数据,我们校准了四个版本的常微分方程模型,并对年龄结构和传播函数做了不同的假设。在所有其他参数保持不变的情况下,将疫苗接种率设为零,从而模拟了无疫苗接种的反事实情景。据估计,最初的疫苗接种可预防 46,000 至 75,000 例住院、6,000 至 11,000 例入住重症监护室以及 15,000 至 24,000 例死亡,使这些结果减少了 73-86%。最重要的影响发生在 2021 年第三季度,当时正值德尔塔变异株占据主导地位,疫苗接种率超过 60%。敏感性分析表明,疫苗接种覆盖率对避免结果的影响比疫苗效力更大。总体而言,巴斯克地区的疫苗接种活动大大降低了 COVID-19 的严重后果,与全球估计值一致,并显示出不同建模方法的稳健性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
1.40%
发文量
57
审稿时长
19 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health is an esteemed international publication, offering a platform for peer-reviewed articles that drive advancements in global epidemiology and international health. Our mission is to shape global health policy by showcasing cutting-edge scholarship and innovative strategies.
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